Considering two random variables X {\displaystyle X} and Y {\displaystyle Y} , the following algebraic operations are possible:
In all cases, the variable Z {\displaystyle Z} resulting from each operation is also a random variable. All commutative and associative properties of conventional algebraic operations are also valid for random variables. If any of the random variables is replaced by a deterministic variable or by a constant value, all the previous properties remain valid.
The expected value E [ Z ] {\displaystyle \operatorname {E} [Z]} of the random variable Z {\displaystyle Z} resulting from an algebraic operation between two random variables can be calculated using the following set of rules:
If any of the random variables is replaced by a deterministic variable or by a constant value ( k {\displaystyle k} ), the previous properties remain valid considering that Pr ( X = k ) = 1 {\displaystyle \Pr(X=k)=1} and, therefore, E [ X ] = k {\displaystyle \operatorname {E} [X]=k} .
If Z {\displaystyle Z} is defined as a general non-linear algebraic function f {\displaystyle f} of a random variable X {\displaystyle X} , then:
E [ Z ] = E [ f ( X ) ] ≠ f ( E [ X ] ) {\displaystyle \operatorname {E} [Z]=\operatorname {E} [f(X)]\neq f(\operatorname {E} [X])}
Some examples of this property include:
The exact value of the expectation of the non-linear function will depend on the particular probability distribution of the random variable X {\displaystyle X} .
The variance Var [ Z ] {\displaystyle \operatorname {Var} [Z]} of the random variable Z {\displaystyle Z} resulting from an algebraic operation between random variables can be calculated using the following set of rules:
where Cov [ X , Y ] = Cov [ Y , X ] {\displaystyle \operatorname {Cov} [X,Y]=\operatorname {Cov} [Y,X]} represents the covariance operator between random variables X {\displaystyle X} and Y {\displaystyle Y} .
The variance of a random variable can also be expressed directly in terms of the covariance or in terms of the expected value:
Var [ X ] = Cov ( X , X ) = E [ X 2 ] − E [ X ] 2 {\displaystyle \operatorname {Var} [X]=\operatorname {Cov} (X,X)=\operatorname {E} [X^{2}]-\operatorname {E} [X]^{2}}
If any of the random variables is replaced by a deterministic variable or by a constant value ( k {\displaystyle k} ), the previous properties remain valid considering that Pr ( X = k ) = 1 {\displaystyle \Pr(X=k)=1} and E [ X ] = k {\displaystyle \operatorname {E} [X]=k} , Var [ X ] = 0 {\displaystyle \operatorname {Var} [X]=0} and Cov [ Y , k ] = 0 {\displaystyle \operatorname {Cov} [Y,k]=0} . Special cases are the addition and multiplication of a random variable with a deterministic variable or a constant, where:
Var [ Z ] = Var [ f ( X ) ] ≠ f ( Var [ X ] ) {\displaystyle \operatorname {Var} [Z]=\operatorname {Var} [f(X)]\neq f(\operatorname {Var} [X])}
The exact value of the variance of the non-linear function will depend on the particular probability distribution of the random variable X {\displaystyle X} .
The covariance ( Cov [ Z , X ] {\displaystyle \operatorname {Cov} [Z,X]} ) between the random variable Z {\displaystyle Z} resulting from an algebraic operation and the random variable X {\displaystyle X} can be calculated using the following set of rules:
The covariance of a random variable can also be expressed directly in terms of the expected value:
Cov ( X , Y ) = E [ X Y ] − E [ X ] E [ Y ] {\displaystyle \operatorname {Cov} (X,Y)=\operatorname {E} [XY]-\operatorname {E} [X]\operatorname {E} [Y]}
If any of the random variables is replaced by a deterministic variable or by a constant value ( k {\displaystyle k} ), the previous properties remain valid considering that E [ k ] = k {\displaystyle \operatorname {E} [k]=k} , Var [ k ] = 0 {\displaystyle \operatorname {Var} [k]=0} and Cov [ X , k ] = 0 {\displaystyle \operatorname {Cov} [X,k]=0} .
Cov [ Z , X ] = Cov [ f ( X ) , X ] = E [ X f ( X ) ] − E [ f ( X ) ] E [ X ] {\displaystyle \operatorname {Cov} [Z,X]=\operatorname {Cov} [f(X),X]=\operatorname {E} [Xf(X)]-\operatorname {E} [f(X)]\operatorname {E} [X]}
The exact value of the covariance of the non-linear function will depend on the particular probability distribution of the random variable X {\displaystyle X} .
If the moments of a certain random variable X {\displaystyle X} are known (or can be determined by integration if the probability density function is known), then it is possible to approximate the expected value of any general non-linear function f ( X ) {\displaystyle f(X)} as a Taylor series expansion of the moments, as follows:
f ( X ) = ∑ n = 0 ∞ 1 n ! ( d n f d X n ) X = μ ( X − μ ) n , {\displaystyle f(X)=\sum _{n=0}^{\infty }{\frac {1}{n!}}\left({\frac {d^{n}f}{dX^{n}}}\right)_{X=\mu }{\left(X-\mu \right)}^{n},} where μ = E [ X ] {\displaystyle \mu =\operatorname {E} [X]} is the mean value of X {\displaystyle X} .
E [ f ( X ) ] = E [ ∑ n = 0 ∞ 1 n ! ( d n f d X n ) X = μ ( X − μ ) n ] = ∑ n = 0 ∞ 1 n ! ( d n f d X n ) X = μ E [ ( X − μ ) n ] = ∑ n = 0 ∞ 1 n ! ( d n f d X n ) X = μ μ n ( X ) , {\displaystyle {\begin{aligned}\operatorname {E} [f(X)]&=\operatorname {E} \left[\sum _{n=0}^{\infty }{\frac {1}{n!}}\left({d^{n}f \over dX^{n}}\right)_{X=\mu }{\left(X-\mu \right)}^{n}\right]\\&=\sum _{n=0}^{\infty }{\frac {1}{n!}}\left({\frac {d^{n}f}{dX^{n}}}\right)_{X=\mu }\operatorname {E} \left[{\left(X-\mu \right)}^{n}\right]\\&=\sum _{n=0}^{\infty }{\frac {1}{n!}}\left({d^{n}f \over dX^{n}}\right)_{X=\mu }\mu _{n}(X),\end{aligned}}} where μ n ( X ) = E [ ( X − μ ) n ] {\displaystyle \mu _{n}(X)=\operatorname {E} [(X-\mu )^{n}]} is the n-th moment of X {\displaystyle X} about its mean. Note that by their definition, μ 0 ( X ) = 1 {\displaystyle \mu _{0}(X)=1} and μ 1 ( X ) = 0 {\displaystyle \mu _{1}(X)=0} . The first order term always vanishes but was kept to obtain a closed form expression.
Then,
E [ f ( X ) ] ≈ ∑ n = 0 n max 1 n ! ( d n f d X n ) X = μ μ n ( X ) , {\displaystyle \operatorname {E} [f(X)]\approx \sum _{n=0}^{n_{\max }}{\frac {1}{n!}}\left({\frac {d^{n}f}{dX^{n}}}\right)_{X=\mu }\mu _{n}(X),} where the Taylor expansion is truncated after the n max {\displaystyle n_{\max }} -th moment.
Particularly for functions of normal random variables, it is possible to obtain a Taylor expansion in terms of the standard normal distribution:1
f ( X ) = ∑ n = 0 ∞ σ n n ! ( d n f d X n ) X = μ μ n ( Z ) , {\displaystyle f(X)=\sum _{n=0}^{\infty }{\frac {\sigma ^{n}}{n!}}\left({\frac {d^{n}f}{dX^{n}}}\right)_{X=\mu }\mu _{n}(Z),} where X ∼ N ( μ , σ 2 ) {\displaystyle X\sim N(\mu ,\sigma ^{2})} is a normal random variable, and Z ∼ N ( 0 , 1 ) {\displaystyle Z\sim N(0,1)} is the standard normal distribution. Thus,
E [ f ( X ) ] ≈ ∑ n = 0 n max σ n n ! ( d n f d X n ) X = μ μ n ( Z ) , {\displaystyle \operatorname {E} [f(X)]\approx \sum _{n=0}^{n_{\max }}{\sigma ^{n} \over n!}\left({d^{n}f \over dX^{n}}\right)_{X=\mu }\mu _{n}(Z),} where the moments of the standard normal distribution are given by:
μ n ( Z ) = { ∏ i = 1 n / 2 ( 2 i − 1 ) , if n is even 0 , if n is odd {\displaystyle \mu _{n}(Z)={\begin{cases}\prod _{i=1}^{n/2}(2i-1),&{\text{if }}n{\text{ is even}}\\0,&{\text{if }}n{\text{ is odd}}\end{cases}}}
Similarly for normal random variables, it is also possible to approximate the variance of the non-linear function as a Taylor series expansion as:
Var [ f ( X ) ] ≈ ∑ n = 1 n max ( σ n n ! ( d n f d X n ) X = μ ) 2 Var [ Z n ] + ∑ n = 1 n max ∑ m ≠ n σ n + m n ! m ! ( d n f d X n ) X = μ ( d m f d X m ) X = μ Cov [ Z n , Z m ] , {\displaystyle \operatorname {Var} [f(X)]\approx \sum _{n=1}^{n_{\max }}\left({\sigma ^{n} \over n!}\left({d^{n}f \over dX^{n}}\right)_{X=\mu }\right)^{2}\operatorname {Var} [Z^{n}]+\sum _{n=1}^{n_{\max }}\sum _{m\neq n}{\frac {\sigma ^{n+m}}{n!m!}}\left({d^{n}f \over dX^{n}}\right)_{X=\mu }\left({d^{m}f \over dX^{m}}\right)_{X=\mu }\operatorname {Cov} [Z^{n},Z^{m}],} where Var [ Z n ] = { ∏ i = 1 n ( 2 i − 1 ) − ∏ i = 1 n / 2 ( 2 i − 1 ) 2 , if n is even ∏ i = 1 n ( 2 i − 1 ) , if n is odd , {\displaystyle \operatorname {Var} [Z^{n}]={\begin{cases}\prod _{i=1}^{n}(2i-1)-\prod _{i=1}^{n/2}(2i-1)^{2},&{\text{if }}n{\text{ is even}}\\\prod _{i=1}^{n}(2i-1),&{\text{if }}n{\text{ is odd}},\end{cases}}} and Cov [ Z n , Z m ] = { ∏ i = 1 ( n + m ) / 2 ( 2 i − 1 ) − ∏ i = 1 n / 2 ( 2 i − 1 ) ∏ j = 1 m / 2 ( 2 j − 1 ) , if n and m are even ∏ i = 1 ( n + m ) / 2 ( 2 i − 1 ) , if n and m are odd 0 , otherwise {\displaystyle \operatorname {Cov} [Z^{n},Z^{m}]={\begin{cases}\prod _{i=1}^{(n+m)/2}(2i-1)-\prod _{i=1}^{n/2}(2i-1)\prod _{j=1}^{m/2}(2j-1),&{\text{if }}n{\text{ and }}m{\text{ are even}}\\\prod _{i=1}^{(n+m)/2}(2i-1),&{\text{if }}n{\text{ and }}m{\text{ are odd}}\\0,&{\text{otherwise}}\end{cases}}}
In the algebraic axiomatization of probability theory, the primary concept is not that of probability of an event, but rather that of a random variable. Probability distributions are determined by assigning an expectation to each random variable. The measurable space and the probability measure arise from the random variables and expectations by means of well-known representation theorems of analysis. One of the important features of the algebraic approach is that apparently infinite-dimensional probability distributions are not harder to formalize than finite-dimensional ones.
Random variables are assumed to have the following properties:
This means that random variables form complex commutative *-algebras. If X = X* then the random variable X is called "real".
An expectation E on an algebra A of random variables is a normalized, positive linear functional. What this means is that
One may generalize this setup, allowing the algebra to be noncommutative. This leads to other areas of noncommutative probability such as quantum probability, random matrix theory, and free probability.
Hernandez, Hugo (2016). "Modelling the effect of fluctuation in nonlinear systems using variance algebra - Application to light scattering of ideal gases". ForsChem Research Reports. 2016–1. doi:10.13140/rg.2.2.36501.52969. /wiki/Doi_(identifier) ↩