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Post hoc ergo propter hoc
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<h2 id="pattern">Pattern</h2> <p>The form of the <i>post hoc fallacy</i> is expressed as follows: </p> <ul><li>A occurred, then B occurred.</li> <li>Therefore, A caused B.</li></ul> <p>When B is undesirable, this pattern is often combined with the <a href="/facts/Formal_fallacy/1c3P1BEH">formal fallacy</a> of <a href="/facts/Denying_the_antecedent/8IPMqqA3">denying the antecedent</a>, assuming the <a href="/facts/Inverse_(logic)/oBKQJ15R">logical inverse</a> holds: believing that avoiding A will prevent B.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:4" href="#fn:4"><sup>4</sup></a> </p> <h2 id="examples">Examples</h2> <ul><li>A tenant moves into an apartment and the building's furnace develops a fault. The manager blames the tenant's arrival for the malfunction. One event merely followed the other, in the absence of causality.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:5" href="#fn:5"><sup>5</sup></a></li> <li>Brazilian footballer <a href="/facts/Pel%25C3%25A9/bYfr3vzA">Pelé</a> blamed a dip in his playing performance on having given his playing shirt to a fan. His play recovered after a friend, sent to retrieve the shirt from the fan, returned a shirt claimed to be the original (though it was actually just the shirt Pelé had worn during his previous poor performance, as the original could not be tracked down).<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:6" href="#fn:6"><sup>6</sup></a></li> <li>Reporting of coincidental <a href="/facts/Vaccine_adverse_event/nGTIBaJU">vaccine adverse events</a>, where people have a health complaint after being vaccinated and assume it was caused by the vaccination.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:7" href="#fn:7"><sup>7</sup></a></li></ul> <h2 id="see-also">See also</h2> <ul><li><a href="/facts/Apophenia/CLQ15Yat">Apophenia</a> – Tendency to perceive connections between unrelated things</li> <li><a href="/facts/Affirming_the_consequent/dK0zDWFB">Affirming the consequent</a> – Type of fallacious argument (logical fallacy)</li> <li><a href="/facts/Association_fallacy/pg0v9aL5">Association fallacy</a> – Formal fallacy</li> <li><a href="/facts/Cargo_cult/njtQSPoE">Cargo cult</a> – New religious movement</li> <li><a href="/facts/Causal_inference/0D0zNs9b">Causal inference</a> – Branch of statistics concerned with inferring causal relationships between variables</li> <li><a href="/facts/Coincidence/2tRlwlew">Coincidence</a> – Concurrence of events with no connection</li> <li><a href="/facts/Confirmation_bias/o5rHY4lP">Confirmation bias</a> – Bias confirming existing attitudes</li> <li><a href="/facts/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation/IeWeoMB9">Correlation does not imply causation</a> – Refutation of a logical fallacy</li> <li><a href="/facts/Jumping_to_conclusions/seqhpRud">Jumping to conclusions</a> – Psychological term</li> <li><a href="/facts/Magical_thinking/et63wXVt">Magical thinking</a> – Belief in the connection of unrelated events</li> <li><a href="/facts/Superstition/XB63u3qt">Superstition</a> – Belief or behavior that is considered irrational or supernatural</li> <li><a href="/facts/Survivorship_bias/s9t9f5Dz">Survivorship bias</a> – Logical error, form of selection bias</li> <li><a href="/facts/Surrogate_endpoint/qSWmMdt9">Surrogate endpoint</a> – Biomarker proxy outcome measure</li> <li><a href="/facts/Temporality/1zEJ7JVq">Temporality</a> – Concept in philosophy</li> <li><a href="/facts/Texas_sharpshooter_fallacy/9xvaNM4Q">Texas sharpshooter fallacy</a></li></ul> <h2 id="bibliography">Bibliography</h2> <ol><li>Woods, J. H., Walton, D. N. (1977). Post Hoc, Ergo Propter Hoc.</li> <li>Mommsen, J. K. F. (2013). Wider Das Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc - Primary Source Edition. United States: BiblioLife.</li> <li>Woods, J., Walton, D. (2019). Fallacies: Selected Papers 1972–1982. Germany: De Gruyter.</li></ol> <h2 id="references">References</h2> <ol> <li id="fn:1"><p>Grouse, Lawrence (2016). "Post hoc ergo propter hoc". Journal of Thoracic Disease. 8 (7): E511 – E512. doi:10.21037/jtd.2016.04.49. ISSN 2072-1439. PMC 4958779. PMID 27499984. <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4958779" target="_blank">https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4958779</a> <a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li> <li id="fn:2"><p>"post hoc". LII / Legal Information Institute. Retrieved 2021-08-28. <a href="https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/post_hoc" target="_blank">https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/post_hoc</a> <a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li> <li id="fn:3"><p>"Correlation vs Causation". KnowledgeSpace. 2015-10-09. Retrieved 2021-08-28. <a href="https://knowledgespace.com.au/correlation-vs-causation/" target="_blank">https://knowledgespace.com.au/correlation-vs-causation/</a> <a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li> <li id="fn:4"><p>Summers, Jesse S. (24 March 2017). "Post hoc ergo propter hoc : some benefits of rationalization". Philosophical Explorations. 20 (sup1): 21–36. doi:10.1080/13869795.2017.1287292. S2CID 151401300. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080%2F13869795.2017.1287292" target="_blank">https://doi.org/10.1080%2F13869795.2017.1287292</a> <a href="#fnref:4" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li> <li id="fn:5"><p>Damer, T Edward (1995). Attacking Faulty Reasoning: A Practical Guide to Fallacy-Free Arguments (3rd ed.). Belmont, CA: Wadsworth Publishing. p. 131. ISBN 978-0-534-21750-1. OCLC 30319422. <a href="978-0-534-21750-1" target="_blank">978-0-534-21750-1</a> <a href="#fnref:5" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li> <li id="fn:6"><p>Macaskill, Sandy (2009-02-25). "Top 10: Football superstitions to rival Arsenal's Kolo Toure". The Telegraph. Archived from the original on 2010-08-26. <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/teams/arsenal/4805924/Top-10-Football-superstitions-to-rival-Arsenals-Kolo-Toure.html" target="_blank">https://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/teams/arsenal/4805924/Top-10-Football-superstitions-to-rival-Arsenals-Kolo-Toure.html</a> <a href="#fnref:6" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li> <li id="fn:7"><p>Manktelow, K. I. (2012). Thinking and Reasoning: An Introduction to the Psychology of Reason, Judgment and Decision Making. Psychology Press. p. 119. ISBN 9781841697413. <a href="9781841697413" target="_blank">9781841697413</a> <a href="#fnref:7" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li> </ol>