The orbits of some NEOs intersect that of the Earth, so they pose a collision danger. These are considered potentially hazardous objects (PHOs) if their estimated diameter is above 140 meters. PHOs include potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs). PHAs are defined based on two parameters relating to respectively their potential to approach the Earth dangerously closely and the estimated consequences that an impact would have if it occurs. Objects with both an Earth minimum orbit intersection distance (MOID) of 0.05 AU or less and an absolute magnitude of 22.0 or brighter (a rough indicator of large size) are considered PHAs. Objects that either cannot approach closer to the Earth than 0.05 AU (7,500,000 km; 4,600,000 mi), or which are fainter than H = 22.0 (about 140 m (460 ft) in diameter with assumed albedo of 14%), are not considered PHAs.
The first near-Earth objects to be observed by humans were comets. Their extraterrestrial nature was recognised and confirmed only after Tycho Brahe tried to measure the distance of a comet through its parallax in 1577 and the lower limit he obtained was well above the Earth diameter; the periodicity of some comets was first recognised in 1705, when Edmond Halley published his orbit calculations for the returning object now known as Halley's Comet. The 1758–1759 return of Halley's Comet was the first comet appearance predicted.
If a near-Earth object is near the part of its orbit closest to Earth's at the same time Earth is at the part of its orbit closest to the near-Earth object's orbit, the object has a close approach, or, if the orbits intersect, could even impact the Earth or its atmosphere.
As of May 2019, only 23 comets have been observed to pass within 0.1 AU (15,000,000 km; 9,300,000 mi) of Earth, including 10 which are or have been short-period comets. Two of these near-Earth comets, Halley's Comet and 73P/Schwassmann–Wachmann, have been observed during multiple close approaches. The closest observed approach was 0.0151 AU (5.88 LD) for Lexell's Comet on July 1, 1770. After an orbit change due to a close approach of Jupiter in 1779, this object is no longer an NEC. The closest approach ever observed for a current short-period NEC is 0.0229 AU (8.92 LD) for Comet Tempel–Tuttle in 1366. Orbital calculations show that P/1999 J6 (SOHO), a faint sungrazing comet and confirmed short-period NEC observed only during its close approaches to the Sun, passed Earth undetected at a distance of 0.0120 AU (4.65 LD) on June 12, 1999.
As astronomers became able to discover ever smaller and fainter and ever more numerous near-Earth objects, they began to routinely observe and catalogue close approaches. As of December 2024, the closest approach without atmospheric or ground impact ever detected was an encounter with 5–11 m (16–36 ft) asteroid 2020 VT4 on November 14, 2020, with a minimum distance of about 6,750 km (4,190 mi) from the Earth's centre, or about 380 km (240 mi) above its surface. On November 8, 2011, asteroid (308635) 2005 YU55, relatively large at about 400 m (1,300 ft) in diameter, passed within 324,930 km (201,900 mi) (0.845 lunar distances) of Earth. On February 15, 2013, the 30 m (98 ft) asteroid 367943 Duende (2012 DA14) passed approximately 27,700 km (17,200 mi) above the surface of Earth, closer than satellites in geosynchronous orbit. The asteroid was not visible to the unaided eye. This was the first sub-lunar close passage of an object discovered during a previous passage, and was thus the first to be predicted well in advance.
Diagram showing spacecraft and asteroids (past and future) between the Earth and the Moon
Some small asteroids that enter the upper atmosphere of Earth at a shallow angle remain intact and leave the atmosphere again, continuing on a solar orbit. During the passage through the atmosphere, due to the burning of its surface, such an object can be observed as an Earth-grazing fireball.
When a near-Earth object impacts Earth, objects up to a few tens of metres across ordinarily explode in the upper atmosphere (most of them harmlessly), with most or all of the solids vaporized and only small amounts of meteorites arriving to the Earth surface. Larger objects, by contrast, hit the water surface, forming tsunami waves, or the solid surface, forming impact craters.
The frequency of impacts of objects of various sizes is estimated on the basis of orbit simulations of NEO populations, the frequency of impact craters on the Earth and the Moon, and the frequency of close encounters. The study of impact craters indicates that impact frequency has been more or less steady for the past 3.5 billion years, which requires a steady replenishment of the NEO population from the asteroid main belt. One impact model based on widely accepted NEO population models estimates the average time between the impact of two stony asteroids with a diameter of at least 4 m (13 ft) at about one year; for asteroids 7 m (23 ft) across (which impacts with as much energy as the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima, approximately 15 kilotonnes of TNT) at five years, for asteroids 60 m (200 ft) across (an impact energy of 10 megatons, comparable to the Tunguska event in 1908) at 1,300 years, for asteroids 1 km (0.62 mi) across at 440 thousand years, and for asteroids 5 km (3.1 mi) across at 18 million years. Some other models estimate similar impact frequencies, while others calculate higher frequencies. For Tunguska-sized (10 megaton) impacts, the estimates range from one event every 2,000–3,000 years to one event every 300 years.
Location and impact energy of small asteroids impacting Earth's atmosphere
The second-largest observed event after the Tunguska meteor was a 1.1 megaton air blast in 1963 near the Prince Edward Islands between South Africa and Antarctica. However, this event was detected only by infrasound sensors, which led to speculation that this may have been a nuclear test. The third-largest, but by far best-observed impact, was the Chelyabinsk meteor of 15 February 2013. A previously unknown 20 m (66 ft) asteroid exploded above this Russian city with an equivalent blast yield of 400–500 kilotons. The calculated orbit of the pre-impact asteroid is similar to that of Apollo asteroid 2011 EO40, making the latter the meteor's possible parent body.
On October 7, 2008, 20 hours after it was first observed and 11 hours after its trajectory has been calculated and announced, 4 m (13 ft) asteroid 2008 TC3 blew up 37 km (23 mi) above the Nubian Desert in Sudan. It was the first time that an asteroid was observed and its impact was predicted prior to its entry into the atmosphere as a meteor. 10.7 kg of meteorites were recovered after the impact. As of December 2024, eleven impacts have been predicted, all of them small bodies that produced meteor explosions, with some impacts in remote areas only detected by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization's International Monitoring System (IMS), a network of infrasound sensors designed to detect the detonation of nuclear devices. Asteroid impact prediction remains in its infancy and successfully predicted asteroid impacts are rare. The vast majority of impacts recorded by IMS are not predicted.
Observed impacts aren't restricted to the surface and atmosphere of Earth. Dust-sized NEOs have impacted man-made spacecraft, including the space probe Long Duration Exposure Facility, which collected interplanetary dust in low Earth orbit for six years from 1984. Impacts on the Moon can be observed as flashes of light with a typical duration of a fraction of a second. The first lunar impacts were recorded during the 1999 Leonid storm. Subsequently, several continuous monitoring programs were launched. A lunar impact that was observed on September 11, 2013, lasted 8 seconds, was likely caused by an object 0.6–1.4 m (2.0–4.6 ft) in diameter, and created a new crater 40 m (130 ft) across, was the largest ever observed as of July 2019.
The potential of catastrophic impacts by near-Earth comets was recognised as soon as the first orbit calculations provided an understanding of their orbits: in 1694, Edmond Halley presented a theory that Noah's flood in the Bible was caused by a comet impact.
Scientists have recognised the threat of impacts that create craters much bigger than the impacting bodies and have indirect effects on an even wider area since the 1980s, with mounting evidence for the theory that the Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event (in which the non-avian dinosaurs died out) 65 million years ago was caused by a large asteroid impact. On March 23, 1989, the 300 m (980 ft) diameter Apollo asteroid 4581 Asclepius (1989 FC) missed the Earth by 700,000 km (430,000 mi). If the asteroid had impacted it would have created the largest explosion in recorded history, equivalent to 20,000 megatons of TNT. It attracted widespread attention because it was discovered only after the closest approach.
From the 1990s, a typical frame of reference in searches for NEOs has been the scientific concept of risk. The awareness of the wider public of the impact risk rose after the observation of the impact of the fragments of Comet Shoemaker–Levy 9 into Jupiter in July 1994. In March 1998, early orbit calculations for recently discovered asteroid (35396) 1997 XF11 showed a potential 2028 close approach 0.00031 AU (46,000 km) from the Earth, well within the orbit of the Moon, but with a large error margin allowing for a direct hit. Further data allowed a revision of the 2028 approach distance to 0.0064 AU (960,000 km), with no chance of collision. By that time, inaccurate reports of a potential impact had caused a media storm.
There are two schemes for the scientific classification of impact hazards from NEOs, as a way to communicate the risk of impacts to the general public.
The first astronomical program dedicated to the discovery of near-Earth asteroids was the Palomar Planet-Crossing Asteroid Survey. The link to impact hazard, the need for dedicated survey telescopes and options to head off an eventual impact were first discussed at a 1981 interdisciplinary conference in Snowmass, Colorado. Plans for a more comprehensive survey, named the Spaceguard Survey, were developed by NASA from 1992, under a mandate from the United States Congress. To promote the survey on an international level, the International Astronomical Union (IAU) organised a workshop at Vulcano, Italy in 1995, and set up The Spaceguard Foundation also in Italy a year later. In 1998, the United States Congress gave NASA a mandate to detect 90% of near-Earth asteroids over 1 km (0.62 mi) diameter (that threaten global devastation) by 2008.
Survey programs aim to identify threats years in advance, giving humanity time to prepare a space mission to avert the threat.
Scientists involved in NEO research have also considered options for actively averting the threat if an object is found to be on a collision course with Earth. All viable methods aim to deflect rather than destroy the threatening NEO, because the fragments would still cause widespread destruction. Deflection, which means a change in the object's orbit months to years prior to the predicted impact, also requires orders of magnitude less energy.
When an NEO is detected, like all other small Solar System bodies, its positions and brightness are submitted to the (IAU's) Minor Planet Center (MPC) for cataloging. The MPC maintains separate lists of confirmed NEOs and potential NEOs. The MPC maintains a separate list for the potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs). NEOs are also catalogued by two separate units of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) of NASA: the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and the Solar System Dynamics Group. CNEOS's catalog of near-Earth objects includes the approach distances of asteroids and comets. NEOs are also catalogued by a unit of ESA, the Near-Earth Object Coordination Centre (NEOCC).
As of December 30, 2024 and according to statistics maintained by CNEOS, 37,378 NEOs have been discovered. Only 123 (0.33%) of them are comets, whilst 37,255 (99.67%) are asteroids. 2,465 of those NEOs are classified as potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs).
The main problem with estimating the number of NEOs is that the probability of detecting one is influenced by a number of aspects of the NEO, starting naturally with its size but also including the characteristics of its orbit and the reflectivity of its surface. What is easily detected will be more counted, and these observational biases need to be compensated when trying to calculate the number of bodies in a population from the list of its detected members.
Earth-based astronomy requires dark skies and hence nighttime observations, and even space-based telescopes avoid looking into directions close to the Sun, thus most NEO surveys are blind towards objects passing Earth on the side of the Sun. This bias is further enhanced by the effect of phase: the narrower the angle of the asteroid and the Sun from the observer, the lesser part of the observed side of the asteroid will be illuminated. Another bias results from the different surface brightness or albedo of the objects, which can make a large but low-albedo object as bright as a small but high-albedo object. In addition, the reflexivity of asteroid surfaces is not uniform but increases towards the direction opposite of illumination, resulting in the phenomenon of phase darkening, which makes asteroids even brighter when the Earth is close to the axis of sunlight. An asteroid's observed albedo usually has a strong peak or opposition surge very close to the direction opposite of the Sun. Different surfaces display different levels of phase darkening, and research showed that, on top of albedo bias, this favours the discovery of silicon-rich S-type asteroids over carbon-rich C types, for example. As a result of these observational biases, in Earth-based surveys, NEOs tended to be discovered when they were in opposition, that is, opposite from the Sun when viewed from the Earth.
Further observational biases favour objects that have more frequent encounters with the Earth, which makes the detection of Atens more likely than that of Apollos; and objects that move slower when encountering the Earth, which makes the detection of NEAs with low eccentricities more likely.
Such observational biases must be identified and quantified to determine NEO populations, as studies of asteroid populations then take those known observational selection biases into account to make a more accurate assessment. In the year 2000 and taking into account all known observational biases, it was estimated that there are approximately 900 near-Earth asteroids of at least kilometer size, or technically and more accurately, with an absolute magnitude brighter than 17.75.
These are asteroids in a near-Earth orbit without the tail or coma of a comet. As of December 2024, 37,255 near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) are known, 2,465 of which are both sufficiently large and may come sufficiently close to Earth to be classified as potentially hazardous.
NEAs survive in their orbits for just a few million years. They are eventually eliminated by planetary perturbations, causing ejection from the Solar System or a collision with the Sun, a planet, or other celestial body. With orbital lifetimes short compared to the age of the Solar System, new asteroids must be constantly moved into near-Earth orbits to explain the observed asteroids. The accepted origin of these asteroids is that main-belt asteroids are moved into the inner Solar System through orbital resonances with Jupiter. The interaction with Jupiter through the resonance perturbs the asteroid's orbit and it comes into the inner Solar System. The asteroid belt has gaps, known as Kirkwood gaps, where these resonances occur as the asteroids in these resonances have been moved onto other orbits. New asteroids migrate into these resonances, due to the Yarkovsky effect that provides a continuing supply of near-Earth asteroids. Compared to the entire mass of the asteroid belt, the mass loss necessary to sustain the NEA population is relatively small; totalling less than 6% over the past 3.5 billion years. The composition of near-Earth asteroids is comparable to that of asteroids from the asteroid belt, reflecting a variety of asteroid spectral types.
In May 2022, an algorithm known as Tracklet-less Heliocentric Orbit Recovery or THOR and developed by University of Washington researchers to discover asteroids in the solar system was announced as a success. The International Astronomical Union's Minor Planet Center confirmed a series of first candidate asteroids identified by the algorithm.
While the size of a very small fraction of these asteroids is known to better than 1%, from radar observations, from images of the asteroid surface, or from stellar occultations, the diameter of the vast majority of near-Earth asteroids has only been estimated on the basis of their brightness and a representative asteroid surface reflectivity or albedo, which is commonly assumed to be 14%. Such indirect size estimates are uncertain by over a factor of 2 for individual asteroids, since asteroid albedos can range at least as low as 5% and as high as 30%. This makes the volume of those asteroids uncertain by a factor of 8, and their mass by at least as much, since their assumed density also has its own uncertainty. Using this crude method, an absolute magnitude of 17.75 roughly corresponds to a diameter of 1 km (0.62 mi) and an absolute magnitude of 22.0 to a diameter of 140 m (460 ft). Diameters of intermediate precision, better than from an assumed albedo but not nearly as precise as good direct measurements, can be obtained from the combination of reflected light and thermal infrared emission, using a thermal model of the asteroid to estimate both its diameter and its albedo. The reliability of this method, as applied by the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer and NEOWISE missions, has been the subject of a dispute between experts, with the 2018 publication of two independent analyses, one criticising and another giving results consistent with the WISE method. A 2023 study re-evaluated the relationship of brightness, albedo and diameter. For many objects with a diameter larger than 1 km, brightness estimates were reduced slightly. Meanwhile, based on new albedo estimates of smaller objects, the study found that H = 23 best corresponds to a diameter of 140 m.
In 2000, NASA reduced from 1,000–2,000 to 500–1,000 its estimate of the number of existing near-Earth asteroids over one kilometer in diameter, or more exactly brighter than an absolute magnitude of 17.75. Shortly thereafter, the LINEAR survey provided an alternative estimate of 1,227+170−90. In 2011, on the basis of NEOWISE observations, the estimated number of one-kilometer NEAs was narrowed to 981±19 (of which 93% had been discovered at the time), while the number of NEAs larger than 140 meters across was estimated at 13,200±1,900. The NEOWISE estimate differed from other estimates primarily in assuming a slightly lower average asteroid albedo, which produces larger estimated diameters for the same asteroid brightness. This resulted in 911 then known asteroids at least 1 km across, as opposed to the 830 then listed by CNEOS from the same inputs but assuming a slightly higher albedo. In 2017, two studies using an improved statistical method reduced the estimated number of NEAs brighter than absolute magnitude 17.75 (approximately over one kilometer in diameter) slightly to 921±20. The estimated number of near-Earth asteroids brighter than absolute magnitude of 22.0 (approximately over 140 m across) rose to 27,100±2,200, double the WISE estimate, of which about a fourth were known at the time. The number of asteroids brighter than H = 25, which corresponds to about 40 m (130 ft) in diameter, is estimated at 840,000±23,000—of which about 1.3 percent had been discovered by February 2016; the number of asteroids brighter than H = 30 (larger than 3.5 m (11 ft)) is estimated at 400±100 million—of which about 0.003 percent had been discovered by February 2016.
A September 2021 study revised the estimated number of NEAs with a diameter larger than 1 km (using both WISE data and the absolute brightness lower than 17.75 as proxy) slightly upwards to 981±19, of which 911 were discovered at the time, but reduced the estimated number of asteroids brighter than absolute magnitude of 22.0 (as proxy for a diameter of 140 m) to under 20,000, of which about half were discovered at the time. The 2023 study that re-evaluated the relationship of average absolute brightness, albedo and diameter confirmed the ratios of the number of discovered and estimated total asteroids of different sizes in the 2021 study, but by changing the proxy for a diameter of 140 m to H = 23, it estimated that only about 44% of the estimated 35,000 total larger than that have been discovered by the end of 2022. As of January 2024, NEO catalogues still use H = 22 as proxy for a diameter of 140 m.
As of December 30, 2024, and using diameters mostly estimated crudely from a measured absolute magnitude and an assumed albedo, 867 NEAs listed by CNEOS, including 152 PHAs, measure at least 1 km in diameter, and 11,167 known NEAs, including 2,465 PHAs, are larger than 140 m in diameter.
The smallest known near-Earth asteroid is 2015 FF415 with an absolute magnitude of 34.34, corresponding to an estimated diameter of about 0.5 m (1.6 ft). The largest such object is 1036 Ganymed, with an absolute magnitude of 9.18 and directly measured irregular dimensions which are equivalent to a diameter of about 38 km (24 mi).
Some authors define Atens differently: they define it as being all the asteroids with a semi-major axis of less than 1 AU. That is, they consider the Atiras to be part of the Atens. Historically, until 1998, there were no known or suspected Atiras, so the distinction wasn't necessary.
Atiras and Amors do not cross the Earth's orbit and are not immediate impact threats, but their orbits may change to become Earth-crossing orbits in the future.
As of December 30, 2024, 34 Atiras, 2,952 Atens, 21,132 Apollos and 13,137 Amors have been discovered and cataloged.
Near-Earth asteroids also include the co-orbitals of Venus. As of January 2023, all known co-orbitals of Venus have orbits with high eccentricity, also crossing Earth's orbit.
Near-Earth comets (NECs) are objects in a near-Earth orbit with a tail or coma made up of dust, gas or ionized particles emitted by a solid nucleus. Comet nuclei are typically less dense than asteroids but they pass Earth at higher relative speeds, thus the impact energy of a comet nucleus is slightly larger than that of a similar-sized asteroid. NECs may pose an additional hazard due to fragmentation: the meteoroid streams which produce meteor showers may include large inactive fragments, effectively NEAs. Although no impact of a comet in Earth's history has been conclusively confirmed, the Tunguska event may have been caused by a fragment of Comet Encke.
Comets are commonly divided between short-period and long-period comets. Short-period comets, with an orbital period of less than 200 years, originate in the Kuiper belt, beyond the orbit of Neptune; while long-period comets originate in the Oort Cloud, in the outer reaches of the Solar System. The orbital period distinction is of importance in the evaluation of the risk from near-Earth comets because short-period NECs are likely to have been observed during multiple apparitions and thus their orbits can be determined with some precision, while long-period NECs can be assumed to have been seen for the first and last time when they appeared since the start of precise observations, thus their approaches cannot be predicted well in advance. Since the threat from long-period NECs is estimated to be at most 1% of the threat from NEAs, and long-period comets are very faint and thus difficult to detect at large distances from the Sun, Spaceguard efforts have consistently focused on asteroids and short-period comets. Both NASA's CNEOS and ESA's NEOCC restrict their definition of NECs to short-period comets. As of December 30, 2024, 123 such objects have been discovered.
In some cases, active space probes on solar orbits have been observed by NEO surveys and erroneously catalogued as asteroids before identification. During its 2007 flyby of Earth on its route to a comet, ESA's space probe Rosetta was detected unidentified and classified as asteroid 2007 VN84, with an alert issued due to its close approach. The designation 2015 HP116 was similarly removed from asteroid catalogues when the observed object was identified with Gaia, ESA's space observatory for astrometry.
From the 2000s, there were plans for the commercial exploitation of near-Earth asteroids, either through the use of robots or even by sending private commercial astronauts to act as space miners, but few of these plans were pursued.
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