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Earthquake forecasting
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<h2 id="methods-for-earthquake-forecasting">Methods for earthquake forecasting</h2> <p>Methods for earthquake forecasting generally look for trends or patterns that lead to an earthquake. As these trends may be complex and involve many variables, advanced statistical techniques are often needed to understand them, therefore these are sometimes called statistical methods. These approaches tend to have relatively long time periods, making them useful for earthquake forecasting. </p> <h3>Elastic rebound</h3> <p>Even the stiffest of rock is not perfectly rigid. Given a large force (such as between two immense tectonic plates moving past each other) the Earth's crust will bend or deform. According to the <a href="/facts/Elastic_rebound/u4Roto1B">elastic rebound</a> theory of Reid (1910), eventually the deformation (strain) becomes great enough that something breaks, usually at an existing fault. Slippage along the break (an earthquake) allows the rock on each side to rebound to a less deformed state. In the process, energy is released in various forms, including seismic waves.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:5" href="#fn:5"><sup>5</sup></a> The cycle of tectonic force being accumulated in elastic deformation and released in a sudden rebound is then repeated. As the displacement from a single earthquake ranges from less than a meter to around 10 meters (for an M 8 quake),<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:6" href="#fn:6"><sup>6</sup></a> the demonstrated existence of large <a href="/facts/Strike-slip/0Fw2ladx">strike-slip</a> displacements of hundreds of miles shows the existence of a long-running earthquake cycle.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:7" href="#fn:7"><sup>7</sup></a> </p> <h3>Characteristic earthquakes</h3> <p>The most studied earthquake faults (such as the <a href="/facts/Nankai_megathrust/vBhVlzkc">Nankai megathrust</a>, the <a href="/facts/Wasatch_fault/XPWfdBJx">Wasatch fault</a>, and the <a href="/facts/San_Andreas_Fault/cxcmWKfc">San Andreas Fault</a>) appear to have distinct segments. The <i>characteristic earthquake</i> model postulates that earthquakes are generally constrained within these segments.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:8" href="#fn:8"><sup>8</sup></a> As the lengths and other properties<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:9" href="#fn:9"><sup>9</sup></a> of the segments are fixed, earthquakes that rupture the entire fault should have similar characteristics. These include the maximum magnitude (which is limited by the length of the rupture), and the amount of accumulated strain needed to rupture the fault segment. Since continuous plate motions cause the strain to accumulate steadily, seismic activity on a given segment should be dominated by earthquakes of similar characteristics that recur at somewhat regular intervals.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:10" href="#fn:10"><sup>10</sup></a> For a given fault segment, identifying these characteristic earthquakes and timing their recurrence rate (or conversely <a href="/facts/Return_period/Xzr9WdvB">return period</a>) should therefore inform us about the next rupture; this is the approach generally used in forecasting seismic hazard. Return periods are also used for forecasting other rare events, such as cyclones and floods, and assume that future frequency will be similar to observed frequency to date. </p><p>Extrapolation from the <a href="/facts/Parkfield_earthquake/VS0CBdmd">Parkfield earthquakes</a> of 1857, 1881, 1901, 1922, 1934, and 1966 led to a forecast of an earthquake around 1988, or before 1993 at the latest (at the 95% confidence interval), based on the characteristic earthquake model.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:11" href="#fn:11"><sup>11</sup></a> Instrumentation was put in place in hopes of detecting precursors of the anticipated earthquake. However, the forecasted earthquake did not occur until 2004. The failure of the <a href="/facts/Earthquake_prediction/KGtV76NW">Parkfield prediction experiment</a> has raised doubt as to the validity of the characteristic earthquake model itself.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:12" href="#fn:12"><sup>12</sup></a> </p> <h3>Seismic gaps</h3> <p>At the contact where two tectonic plates slip past each other, every section must eventually slip, as (in the long-term) none get left behind. But they do not all slip at the same time; different sections will be at different stages in the cycle of strain (deformation) accumulation and sudden rebound. In the seismic gap model, the "next big quake" should be expected not in the segments where recent seismicity has relieved the strain, but in the intervening gaps where the unrelieved strain is the greatest.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:13" href="#fn:13"><sup>13</sup></a> This model has an intuitive appeal; it is used in long-term forecasting, and was the basis of a series of circum-Pacific (<a href="/facts/Pacific_Rim/a16MtCkU">Pacific Rim</a>) forecasts in 1979 and 1989–1991.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:14" href="#fn:14"><sup>14</sup></a> </p><p>However, some underlying assumptions about seismic gaps are now known to be incorrect. A close examination suggests that "there may be no information in seismic gaps about the time of occurrence or the magnitude of the next large event in the region";<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:15" href="#fn:15"><sup>15</sup></a> statistical tests of the circum-Pacific forecasts shows that the seismic gap model "did not forecast large earthquakes well".<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:16" href="#fn:16"><sup>16</sup></a> Another study concluded that a long quiet period did not increase earthquake potential.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:17" href="#fn:17"><sup>17</sup></a> </p> <h2 id="notable-forecasts">Notable forecasts</h2> <h3>UCERF3</h3> <p class="note">Main article: <a href="/facts/UCERF3/CHblc7ME">UCERF3</a></p> <p>The 2015 Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3, or UCERF3, is the latest official earthquake rupture forecast (ERF) for the state of <a href="/facts/California/zLW2vdQJ">California</a>, superseding <a href="/facts/UCERF2/Lr0StPX7">UCERF2</a>. It provides authoritative estimates of the likelihood and severity of potentially damaging earthquake ruptures in the long- and near-term. Combining this with ground motion models produces estimates of the severity of ground shaking that can be expected during a given period (<a href="/facts/Seismic_hazard/0ssayKA9">seismic hazard</a>), and of the threat to the built environment (<a href="/facts/Seismic_risk/XIKA4fPr">seismic risk</a>). This information is used to inform engineering design and building codes, planning for disaster, and evaluating whether earthquake insurance premiums are sufficient for the prospective losses.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:18" href="#fn:18"><sup>18</sup></a> A variety of hazard metrics<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:19" href="#fn:19"><sup>19</sup></a> can be calculated with UCERF3; a typical metric is the likelihood of a magnitude<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:20" href="#fn:20"><sup>20</sup></a> M 6.7 earthquake (the size of the <a href="/facts/1994_Northridge_earthquake/PXyAEEEy">1994 Northridge earthquake</a>) in the 30 years (typical life of a mortgage) since 2014. </p><p>UCERF3 was prepared by the <i>Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities</i> (WGCEP), a collaboration between the <a href="/facts/United_States_Geological_Survey/nVaGtMjl">United States Geological Survey</a> (USGS), the <a href="/facts/California_Geological_Survey/y8VDSpUN">California Geological Survey</a> (CGS), and the <a href="/facts/Southern_California_Earthquake_Center/SyYnVFwx">Southern California Earthquake Center</a> (SCEC), with significant funding from the <a href="/facts/California_Earthquake_Authority/djyb32QT">California Earthquake Authority</a> (CEA).<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:21" href="#fn:21"><sup>21</sup></a> </p> <h2 id="notes">Notes</h2> <h2 id="sources">Sources</h2> <ul><li><a href="/facts/Clarence_Allen_(geologist)/udd5dmTo">Allen, Clarence R.</a> (December 1976), "Responsibilities in earthquake prediction", <i>Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America</i>, 66 (6): 2069–2074, <a href="/facts/Bibcode_(identifier)/9HtdQSGB">Bibcode</a>:<a href="https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1976BuSSA..66.2069A">1976BuSSA..66.2069A</a>, <a href="/facts/Doi_(identifier)/muM9Etpq">doi</a>:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1785%2FBSSA0660062069">10.1785/BSSA0660062069</a>.</li></ul> <ul><li>Bakun, W. H.; Lindh, A. G. (16 August 1985), <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/pdf/10.1126/science.229.4714.619">"The Parkfield, California, Earthquake Prediction Experiment"</a>, <i>Science</i>, 229 (4714): 619–624, <a href="/facts/Bibcode_(identifier)/9HtdQSGB">Bibcode</a>:<a href="https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1985Sci...229..619B">1985Sci...229..619B</a>, <a href="/facts/Doi_(identifier)/muM9Etpq">doi</a>:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1126%2Fscience.229.4714.619">10.1126/science.229.4714.619</a>, <a href="/facts/PMID_(identifier)/JlHAvMHt">PMID</a> <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17739363">17739363</a>, <a href="/facts/S2CID_(identifier)/ldJsHa2Y">S2CID</a> <a href="https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:40899434">40899434</a>.</li></ul> <ul><li>Castellaro, S. (2003), <a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=tIm-sXDVIiIC&pg=PA56">"§2.4.3. The classical earthquake model"</a>, in Mulargia, Francesco; Geller, Robert J. (eds.), <i>Earthquake science and seismic risk reduction</i>, Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers, pp. 56–57, <a href="/facts/ISBN_(identifier)/15AdSPa9">ISBN</a> 978-1-4020-1778-0.</li></ul> <ul><li>Console, R. (30 August 2001), "Testing earthquake forecast hypotheses", <i>Tectonophysics</i>, 338 (3–4): 261–268, <a href="/facts/Bibcode_(identifier)/9HtdQSGB">Bibcode</a>:<a href="https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2001Tectp.338..261C">2001Tectp.338..261C</a>, <a href="/facts/Doi_(identifier)/muM9Etpq">doi</a>:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1016%2FS0040-1951%2801%2900081-6">10.1016/S0040-1951(01)00081-6</a>.</li></ul> <ul><li>Evans, R. 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II; Zeng, Yuehua (2013), <a href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1165/"><i>Uniform California earthquake rupture forecast, version 3 (UCERF3) – The time-independent model</i></a>, vol. Open-File Report 2013–1165, United States Geological Survey. Also California Geological Survey Special Report 228, and Southern California Earthquake Center Publication 1792.</li></ul> <ul><li>Geller, Robert J. (December 1997), <a href="http://gji.oxfordjournals.org/content/131/3/425.full.pdf">"Earthquake prediction: a critical review."</a> (PDF), <i>Geophysical Journal International</i>, 131 (3): 425–450, <a href="/facts/Bibcode_(identifier)/9HtdQSGB">Bibcode</a>:<a href="https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1997GeoJI.131..425G">1997GeoJI.131..425G</a>, <a href="/facts/Doi_(identifier)/muM9Etpq">doi</a>:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1111%2Fj.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x">10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb06588.x</a>[<i>dead link</i>]</li></ul> <ul><li>Geller, Robert J.; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y.; Mulargia, Francesco (14 March 1997), <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190512161821/http://moho.ess.ucla.edu/~kagan/Geller_et_al_1997.pdf">"Earthquakes Cannot Be Predicted"</a> (PDF), <i>Science</i>, 275 (5306): 1616, <a href="/facts/Doi_(identifier)/muM9Etpq">doi</a>:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1126%2Fscience.275.5306.1616">10.1126/science.275.5306.1616</a>, <a href="/facts/S2CID_(identifier)/ldJsHa2Y">S2CID</a> <a href="https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:123516228">123516228</a>, archived from <a href="http://moho.ess.ucla.edu/~kagan/Geller_et_al_1997.pdf">the original</a> (PDF) on 12 May 2019, retrieved 29 December 2016.</li></ul> <ul><li>International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (30 May 2011), <a href="http://www.annalsofgeophysics.eu/index.php/annals/article/view/5350">"Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization"</a>, <i>Annals of Geophysics</i>, 54 (4): 315–391, <a href="/facts/Doi_(identifier)/muM9Etpq">doi</a>:<a href="https://doi.org/10.4401%2Fag-5350">10.4401/ag-5350</a>, <a href="/facts/Hdl_(identifier)/rdebSxmC">hdl</a>:<a href="https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11820%2F6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82">20.500.11820/6552f865-6e59-47f1-a5ec-b7446bfd1a82</a>, <a href="/facts/S2CID_(identifier)/ldJsHa2Y">S2CID</a> <a href="https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:129825964">129825964</a>.</li></ul> <ul><li>Jackson, David D. (2004), <a href="http://www.agu.org/books/gm/v150/150GM26/150GM26.pdf">"Earthquake Prediction and Forecasting"</a> (PDF), in Sparks, R. S. J.; Hawkesworth, C. J. (eds.), <i>The State of the Planet: Frontiers and Challenges in Geophysics</i>, Geophysical Monograph Series, vol. 150, pp. 335–348, <a href="/facts/Bibcode_(identifier)/9HtdQSGB">Bibcode</a>:<a href="https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2004GMS...150..335J">2004GMS...150..335J</a>, <a href="/facts/Doi_(identifier)/muM9Etpq">doi</a>:<a href="https://doi.org/10.1029%2F150GM26">10.1029/150GM26</a>, <a href="/facts/ISBN_(identifier)/15AdSPa9">ISBN</a> 0-87590-415-7[<i>permanent dead link</i>].</li></ul> <ul><li>Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. 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(August 1994), "New empirical relationships among magnitude, rupture length, rupture width, rupture area, and surface displacement." (PDF), Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 84 (4): 974–1002, Bibcode:1994BuSSA..84..974W, doi:10.1785/BSSA0840040974, archived from the original (PDF) on 2019-01-03, retrieved 2016-12-30 <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20190103020043/http://seismo.berkeley.edu/~rallen/teaching/eps256-s07/WellsCoppersmith1994.pdf" target="_blank">https://web.archive.org/web/20190103020043/http://seismo.berkeley.edu/~rallen/teaching/eps256-s07/WellsCoppersmith1994.pdf</a> <a href="#fnref:6" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li> <li id="fn:7"><p>Zoback 2006 provides a clear explanation. 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Press, ISBN 0-521-65223-5 <a href="#fnref:13" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li> <li id="fn:14"><p>Kagan & Jackson 1991, pp. 21, 419; McCann et al. 1979; Rong, Jackson & Kagan 2003. - Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D. (10 December 1991), "Seismic Gap Hypothesis: Ten Years After" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 96 (B13): 21419–21431, Bibcode:1991JGR....9621419K, doi:10.1029/91jb02210, archived from the original (PDF) on 4 March 2016, retrieved 30 December 2016 <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160304080738/http://moho.ess.ucla.edu/~kagan/JGR_1991_after.pdf" target="_blank">https://web.archive.org/web/20160304080738/http://moho.ess.ucla.edu/~kagan/JGR_1991_after.pdf</a> <a href="#fnref:14" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li> <li id="fn:15"><p>Lomnitz & Nava 1983. - Lomnitz, Cinna; Nava, F. Alejandro (December 1983), "The predictive value of seismic gaps.", Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 73 (6A): 1815–1824 <a href="#fnref:15" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li> <li id="fn:16"><p>Rong, Jackson & Kagan 2003, p. 23. - Rong, Yufang; Jackson, David D.; Kagan, Yan Y. (October 2003), "Seismic gaps and earthquakes" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 108 (B10): 2471, Bibcode:2003JGRB..108.2471R, doi:10.1029/2002JB002334, S2CID 14079028 <a href="http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/9q47h699.pdf" target="_blank">http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/9q47h699.pdf</a> <a href="#fnref:16" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li> <li id="fn:17"><p>Kagan & Jackson 1991, Summary. - Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D. (10 December 1991), "Seismic Gap Hypothesis: Ten Years After" (PDF), Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 96 (B13): 21419–21431, Bibcode:1991JGR....9621419K, doi:10.1029/91jb02210, archived from the original (PDF) on 4 March 2016, retrieved 30 December 2016 <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160304080738/http://moho.ess.ucla.edu/~kagan/JGR_1991_after.pdf" target="_blank">https://web.archive.org/web/20160304080738/http://moho.ess.ucla.edu/~kagan/JGR_1991_after.pdf</a> <a href="#fnref:17" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li> <li id="fn:18"><p>Field et al. 2013, p. 2. - Field, Edward H.; Biasi, Glenn P.; Bird, Peter; Dawson, Timothy E.; Felzer, Karen R.; Jackson, David D.; Johnson, Kaj M.; Jordan, Thomas H.; Madden, Christopher; Michael, Andrew J.; Milner, Kevin R.; Page, Morgan T.; Parsons, Tom; Powers, Peter M.; Shaw, Bruce E.; Thatcher, Wayne R.; Weldon, Ray J. II; Zeng, Yuehua (2013), Uniform California earthquake rupture forecast, version 3 (UCERF3) – The time-independent model, vol. Open-File Report 2013–1165, United States Geological Survey <a href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1165/" target="_blank">https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1165/</a> <a href="#fnref:18" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li> <li id="fn:19"><p>For a list of evaluation metrics available as of 2013 see Table 11 in Field et al. 2013, p. 52. - Field, Edward H.; Biasi, Glenn P.; Bird, Peter; Dawson, Timothy E.; Felzer, Karen R.; Jackson, David D.; Johnson, Kaj M.; Jordan, Thomas H.; Madden, Christopher; Michael, Andrew J.; Milner, Kevin R.; Page, Morgan T.; Parsons, Tom; Powers, Peter M.; Shaw, Bruce E.; Thatcher, Wayne R.; Weldon, Ray J. II; Zeng, Yuehua (2013), Uniform California earthquake rupture forecast, version 3 (UCERF3) – The time-independent model, vol. Open-File Report 2013–1165, United States Geological Survey <a href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1165/" target="_blank">https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1165/</a> <a href="#fnref:19" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li> <li id="fn:20"><p>Following standard seismological practice, all earthquake magnitudes here are per the moment magnitude scale. This is generally equivalent to the better known Richter scale. <a href="/wiki/Moment_magnitude_scale" target="_blank">/wiki/Moment_magnitude_scale</a> <a href="#fnref:20" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li> <li id="fn:21"><p>Field et al. 2013, p. 2. - Field, Edward H.; Biasi, Glenn P.; Bird, Peter; Dawson, Timothy E.; Felzer, Karen R.; Jackson, David D.; Johnson, Kaj M.; Jordan, Thomas H.; Madden, Christopher; Michael, Andrew J.; Milner, Kevin R.; Page, Morgan T.; Parsons, Tom; Powers, Peter M.; Shaw, Bruce E.; Thatcher, Wayne R.; Weldon, Ray J. II; Zeng, Yuehua (2013), Uniform California earthquake rupture forecast, version 3 (UCERF3) – The time-independent model, vol. Open-File Report 2013–1165, United States Geological Survey <a href="https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1165/" target="_blank">https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1165/</a> <a href="#fnref:21" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li> </ol>