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Climate inertia
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<h2 id="inertial-timescales">Inertial timescales</h2> Response times to climate forcing<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:12" href="#fn:12"><sup>12</sup></a><table><tbody><tr><th>Earth SystemComponent</th><th>TimeConstant(years)</th><th>ResponseModes</th></tr><tr><td><i>Atmosphere</i></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Water Vaporand Clouds</td><td>10−2-10</td><td>EC, WC</td></tr><tr><td>Trace Gases</td><td>10−1-108</td><td>CC</td></tr><tr><td><i>Hydrosphere</i></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Ocean MixedLayer</td><td>10−1-10</td><td>EC, WC,CC</td></tr><tr><td>Deep Ocean</td><td>10-103</td><td>EC, CC</td></tr><tr><td><i>Lithosphere</i></td><td></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Land Surfaceand Soils</td><td>10−1-102</td><td>EC, WC,CC</td></tr><tr><td>SubterraneanSediments</td><td>104-109</td><td>CC</td></tr><tr><td><i>Cryosphere</i></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Glaciers</td><td>10−1-10</td><td>EC, WC</td></tr><tr><td>Sea Ice</td><td>10−1-10</td><td>EC, WC</td></tr><tr><td>Ice Sheets</td><td>103-106</td><td>EC, WC</td></tr><tr><td><i>Biosphere</i></td><td></td></tr><tr><td>Upper Marine</td><td>10−1-102</td><td>CC</td></tr><tr><td>Terrestrial</td><td>10−1-102</td><td>WC, CC</td></tr><tr><th colspan="3">EC=<i>Energy Cycle</i>WC=<i>Water Cycle</i> CC=<i>Carbon Cycle</i></th></tr></tbody></table> <p>The <a href="/facts/Paleoclimate/p3x22QaC">paleoclimate</a> record shows that Earth's climate system has evolved along various pathways and with multiple timescales. Its relatively stable states which can persist for many millennia have been interrupted by short to long transitional periods of relative instability.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:13" href="#fn:13"><sup>13</sup></a>: 19–72 Studies of climate sensitivity and inertia are concerned with quantifying the <i>most basic manner</i> in which a sustained forcing <a href="/facts/Perturbation_theory/JWrNgbVm">perturbation</a> will cause the system to deviate within or initially away from its relatively stable state of the present <a href="/facts/Holocene/sppPgwW5">Holocene</a> epoch.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:14" href="#fn:14"><sup>14</sup></a><a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:15" href="#fn:15"><sup>15</sup></a> </p><p>"<a href="/facts/Time_constant/5na4AbzV">Time constants</a>" are useful metrics for summarizing the first-order (linear) impacts of the various inertial phenomena within both simple and complex systems. They quantify the time after which 63% of a full output response occurs following the step change of an input. They are observed from data or can be estimated from numerical simulation or a <a href="/facts/Lumped_system_analysis/Nqtt18v5">lumped system analysis</a>. In climate science these methods can be applied to Earth's <a href="/facts/Earth%27s_energy_budget/PHytQRdx">energy cycle</a>, <a href="/facts/Water_cycle/wALHdKjJ">water cycle</a>, <a href="/facts/Carbon_cycle/gVusRaPF">carbon cycle</a> and elsewhere.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:16" href="#fn:16"><sup>16</sup></a> For example, <a href="/facts/Heat_transport/1IV3WbFL">heat transport</a> and <a href="/facts/Heat_capacity/I63nzSyp">storage</a> in the ocean, cryosphere, land and atmosphere are elements within a lumped thermal analysis.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:17" href="#fn:17"><sup>17</sup></a><a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:18" href="#fn:18"><sup>18</sup></a>: 627 Response times to <a href="/facts/Radiative_forcing/VSLpzv66">radiative forcing</a> via the atmosphere typically increase with depth below the surface. </p><p>Inertial time constants indicate a <a href="/facts/Base_rate/HnRytNkF">base rate</a> for forced changes, but lengthy values provide no guarantee of long-term system evolution along a smooth pathway. Numerous higher-order tipping elements having various <a href="/facts/Tipping_points_in_the_climate_system/fpPR0g5I">trigger thresholds</a> and transition timescales have been identified within Earth's present state.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:19" href="#fn:19"><sup>19</sup></a><a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:20" href="#fn:20"><sup>20</sup></a> Such events might precipitate a <a href="/facts/Nonlinear_system/4aYItALC">nonlinear</a> rearrangement of internal energy flows along with <a href="/facts/Abrupt_climate_change/YDg39Pvc">more rapid shifts</a> in climate and/or other systems at regional to global scale.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:21" href="#fn:21"><sup>21</sup></a>: 10–15, 73–76 </p> <h3>Climate response time</h3> <p>The response of global surface temperature (GST) to a step-like doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration, and its resultant forcing, is defined as the <a href="/facts/Climate_sensitivity/toPBU6Qe">Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity</a> (ECS). The ECS response extends over short and long timescales, however the main time constant associated with ECS has been identified by <a href="/facts/Jule_Gregory_Charney/mIEuVaV7">Jule Charney</a>, <a href="/facts/James_Hansen/z0A4PnM9">James Hansen</a> and others as a useful metric to help guide policymaking.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:22" href="#fn:22"><sup>22</sup></a><a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:23" href="#fn:23"><sup>23</sup></a> <a href="/facts/Representative_Concentration_Pathway/zoNyvobf">RCPs</a>, SSPs, and other similar scenarios have also been used by researchers to simulate the rate of forced climate changes. By definition, ECS presumes that ongoing emissions will offset the ocean and land <a href="/facts/Carbon_sink/Gv7uXVmT">carbon sinks</a> following the step-wise perturbation in atmospheric CO2.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:24" href="#fn:24"><sup>24</sup></a><a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:25" href="#fn:25"><sup>25</sup></a> </p><p>ECS response time is proportional to ECS and is principally regulated by the thermal inertia of the uppermost <a href="/facts/Mixed_layer/4MMJ9BNy">mixed layer</a> and adjacent lower ocean layers.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:26" href="#fn:26"><sup>26</sup></a> Main time constants fitted to the results from <a href="/facts/General_circulation_model/6QUar9RF">climate models</a> have ranged from a few decades when ECS is low, to as long as a century when ECS is high. A portion of the variation between estimates arises from different treatments of heat transport into the <a href="/facts/Deep_ocean/c88zdYul">deep ocean</a>.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:27" href="#fn:27"><sup>27</sup></a><a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:28" href="#fn:28"><sup>28</sup></a> </p> <h2 id="components">Components</h2> <h3>Thermal inertia</h3> <p><a href="/facts/Thermal_inertia/J3PUmxtV">Thermal inertia</a> is a term which refers to the observed delays in a body's temperature response during heat transfers. A body with large thermal inertia can store a big amount of energy because of its <a href="/facts/Heat_capacity/I63nzSyp">heat capacity</a>, and can effectively transmit energy according to its <a href="/facts/Heat_transfer_coefficient/N3nljaT1">heat transfer coefficient</a>. The consequences of thermal inertia are inherently expressed via many climate change feedbacks because of their temperature dependencies; including through the strong stabilizing feedback of the <a href="/facts/Climate_change_feedback/N4nHNlPo">Planck response</a><i>. </i> </p> <h4>Ocean inertia</h4> <p>The global ocean is Earth's largest <a href="/facts/Thermal_reservoir/8ntaBCB6">thermal reservoir</a> that functions to regulate the planet's <a href="/facts/Climate/f57XrNFU">climate</a>; acting as both a sink and a source of energy.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:29" href="#fn:29"><sup>29</sup></a> The ocean's thermal inertia delays some global warming for decades or centuries. It is accounted for in <a href="/facts/Global_climate_model/6QUar9RF">global climate models</a>, and has been confirmed via measurements of <a href="/facts/Ocean_heat_content/RDwuuFnm">ocean heat content</a>.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:30" href="#fn:30"><sup>30</sup></a><a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:31" href="#fn:31"><sup>31</sup></a> The observed <a href="/facts/Climate_sensitivity/toPBU6Qe">transient climate sensitivity</a> is proportional to the thermal inertia time scale of the shallower ocean.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:32" href="#fn:32"><sup>32</sup></a> </p> <h4>Ice sheet inertia</h4> <p>Even after <a href="/facts/Carbon_dioxide/xGzpppEp">CO2</a> emissions are lowered, the melting of <a href="/facts/Ice_sheets/j3QpYSeK">ice sheets</a> will persist and further increase sea-level rise for centuries. The slower transportation of heat into the extreme deep ocean, subsurface land sediments, and thick ice sheets will continue until the new <a href="/facts/Climate_sensitivity/toPBU6Qe">Earth system equilibrium</a> has been reached.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:33" href="#fn:33"><sup>33</sup></a> </p><p><a href="/facts/Permafrost/SkFC7LMT">Permafrost</a> also takes longer to respond to a warming planet because of thermal inertia, due to ice rich materials and permafrost thickness.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:34" href="#fn:34"><sup>34</sup></a> </p> <h3>Inertia from carbon cycle feedbacks</h3> <p class="note">See also: <a href="/facts/Climate_change_feedback/N4nHNlPo">Climate change feedback § Carbon cycle</a></p> <p>Earth's carbon cycle feedback includes a destabilizing positive feedback (identified as the climate-carbon feedback) which prolongs warming for centuries, and a stabilizing negative feedback (identified as the concentration-carbon feedback) which limits the ultimate warming response to fossil carbon emissions. The near-term effect following emissions is asymmetric with latter mechanism being about four times larger,<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:35" href="#fn:35"><sup>35</sup></a><a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:36" href="#fn:36"><sup>36</sup></a> and results in a significant net slowing contribution to the inertia of the climate system during the first few decades following emissions.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:37" href="#fn:37"><sup>37</sup></a> </p> <h3>Ecological inertia</h3> <p class="note">Main articles: <a href="/facts/Ecological_stability/qkNzq739">Ecological stability</a> and <a href="/facts/Ecological_resilience/UrwmDwj5">Ecological resilience</a></p> <p>Depending on the ecosystem, <a href="/facts/Effects_of_climate_change/M5EvHf14">effects of climate change</a> could show quickly, while others take more time to respond. For instance, <a href="/facts/Coral_bleaching/LVNHFp9A">coral bleaching</a> can occur in a single warm season, while trees may be able to persist for decades under a changing climate, but be unable to regenerate. Changes in the frequency of extreme weather events could disrupt ecosystems as a consequence, depending on individual response times of species.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:38" href="#fn:38"><sup>38</sup></a> </p> <h2 id="policy-implications-of-inertia">Policy implications of inertia</h2> <p>The <a href="/facts/Intergovernmental_Panel_on_Climate_Change/sh76du1u">IPCC</a> concluded that the inertia and uncertainty of the climate system, ecosystems, and socioeconomic systems implies that margins for safety should be considered. Thus, setting strategies, targets, and time tables for avoiding dangerous interference through climate change. Further the IPCC concluded in their 2001 report that the stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature, or sea level is affected by:<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:39" href="#fn:39"><sup>39</sup></a> </p> <ul><li>The inertia of the climate system, which will cause climate change to continue for a period after <a href="/facts/Climate_change_mitigation/GgkoeWMk">mitigation</a> actions are implemented.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:40" href="#fn:40"><sup>40</sup></a><a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:41" href="#fn:41"><sup>41</sup></a></li> <li>Uncertainty regarding the location of possible thresholds of irreversible change and the behavior of the system in their vicinity.</li> <li>The time lags between adoption of mitigation goals and their achievement.</li></ul> <h2 id="see-also">See also</h2> <ul><li><a href="/facts/Earth%27s_energy_budget/PHytQRdx">Earth's energy budget</a></li> <li><a href="/facts/Planetary_boundaries/th3MzcsM">Planetary boundaries</a></li> <li><a href="/facts/Systems_theory/C56Ck7DQ">Systems theory</a> and <a href="/facts/Systems_analysis/2NwqATNQ">Systems analysis</a></li></ul> <h2 id="references">References</h2> <ol> <li id="fn:1"><p>"Explainer: How 'Shared Socioeconomic Pathways' explore future climate change". 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