In a probability sample (also called "scientific" or "random" sample) each member of the target population has a known and non-zero probability of inclusion in the sample.7 A survey based on a probability sample can in theory produce statistical measurements of the target population that are unbiased, because the expected value of the sample mean is equal to the population mean, E(ȳ)=μ, or have a measurable sampling error, which can be expressed as a confidence interval or margin of error.89
A probability-based survey sample is created by constructing a list of the target population, called the sampling frame, a randomized process for selecting units from the sample frame, called a selection procedure, and a method of contacting selected units to enable them to complete the survey, called a data collection method or mode.10 For some target populations this process may be easy; for example, sampling the employees of a company by using payroll lists. However, in large, disorganized populations simply constructing a suitable sample frame is often a complex and expensive task.
Common methods of conducting a probability sample of the household population in the United States are Area Probability Sampling, Random Digit Dial telephone sampling, and more recently, Address-Based Sampling.11
Within probability sampling, there are specialized techniques such as stratified sampling and cluster sampling that improve the precision or efficiency of the sampling process without altering the fundamental principles of probability sampling.
Stratification is the process of dividing members of the population into homogeneous subgroups before sampling, based on auxiliary information about each sample unit. The strata should be mutually exclusive: every element in the population must be assigned to only one stratum. The strata should also be collectively exhaustive: no population element can be excluded. Then methods such as simple random sampling or systematic sampling can be applied within each stratum. Stratification often improves the representativeness of the sample by reducing sampling error.
Main article: Sampling bias
Bias in surveys is undesirable, but often unavoidable. The major types of bias that may occur in the sampling process are:
Many surveys are not based on probability samples, but rather on finding a suitable collection of respondents to complete the survey. Some common examples of non-probability sampling are:13
In non-probability samples the relationship between the target population and the survey sample is immeasurable and potential bias is unknowable. Sophisticated users of non-probability survey samples tend to view the survey as an experimental condition, rather than a tool for population measurement, and examine the results for internally consistent relationships.
The textbook by Groves et alia provides an overview of survey methodology, including recent literature on questionnaire development (informed by cognitive psychology) :
The other books focus on the statistical theory of survey sampling and require some knowledge of basic statistics, as discussed in the following textbooks:
The elementary book by Scheaffer et alia uses quadratic equations from high-school algebra:
More mathematical statistics is required for Lohr, for Särndal et alia, and for Cochran (classic):
The historically important books by Deming and Kish remain valuable for insights for social scientists (particularly about the U.S. census and the Institute for Social Research at the University of Michigan):
"Non-Probability Sampling - AAPOR". www.aapor.org. Retrieved 2020-05-24. https://www.aapor.org/Education-Resources/Reports/Non-Probability-Sampling.aspx ↩
Weisberg, Herbert F. (2005), The Total Survey Error Approach, University of Chicago Press: Chicago. p.231. ↩
"Archived copy" (PDF). Office of Management and Budget. Retrieved 2009-06-17 – via National Archives. https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/omb/inforeg/statpolicy/standards_stat_surveys.pdf ↩
Lohr. Brewer. Swedes ↩
Richard Valliant, Alan H. Dorfman, and Richard M. Royall (2000), Finite Population Sampling and Inference: A Prediction Approach, Wiley, New York, p. 19 ↩
Salant, Priscilla, I. Dillman, and A. Don. How to conduct your own survey. No. 300.723 S3. 1994. ↩
Kish, L. (1965), Survey Sampling, New York: Wiley. p. 20 ↩
Kish, L. (1965), Survey Sampling, New York: Wiley. p.59 ↩
"Why Sampling Works - AAPOR". http://www.aapor.org/Education-Resources/For-Researchers/Poll-Survey-FAQ/Why-Sampling-Works.aspx ↩
Groves et al., Survey Methodology, Wiley: New York. ↩
Michael W. Link, Michael P. Battaglia, Martin R. Frankel, Larry Osborn, and Ali H. Mokdad, A Comparison of Address-Based Sampling (ABS) Versus Random-Digit Dialing (RDD) for General Population Surveys; Public Opinion Q, Spring 2008; 72: 6 - 27. ↩
"Glossary - NCES Statistical Standards". nces.ed.gov. https://nces.ed.gov/StatProg/2002/glossary.asp ↩
"Survey Sampling Methods". www.statpac.com. https://www.statpac.com/surveys/sampling.htm ↩
Government of Canada, Statistics Canada; Government of Canada, Statistics Canada (28 January 2009). "Learning resources: Statistics: Power from data! Non-probability sampling". www150.statcan.gc.ca. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/edu/power-pouvoir/ch13/nonprob/5214898-eng.htm ↩