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The Good Judgment Project
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<h2 id="history">History</h2> <p>The Good Judgment Project began in July 2011 in collaboration with the <a href="/facts/Aggregative_Contingent_Estimation_(ACE)_Program/T5FDYjg8">Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) Program</a> at IARPA (IARPA-ACE).<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:10" href="#fn:10"><sup>10</sup></a> The first contest began in September 2011.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:11" href="#fn:11"><sup>11</sup></a> GJP was one of many entrants in the IARPA-ACE tournament, which posed around 100 to 150 questions each year on geopolitical events. The GJP research team gathered a large number of talented amateurs (rather than geopolitical subject matter experts), gave them basic tutorials on forecasting best practice and overcoming <a href="/facts/Cognitive_bias/49YKVhmN">cognitive biases</a>, and created an aggregation algorithm to combine the individual predictions of the forecasters.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:12" href="#fn:12"><sup>12</sup></a><a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:13" href="#fn:13"><sup>13</sup></a> GJP won both seasons of the contest, and were 35% to 72% more accurate than any other research team.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:14" href="#fn:14"><sup>14</sup></a> Starting with the summer of 2013, GJP were the only research team IARPA-ACE was still funding, and GJP participants had access to the <a href="/facts/Integrated_Conflict_Early_Warning_System/9WQ6WQ0o">Integrated Conflict Early Warning System</a>.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:15" href="#fn:15"><sup>15</sup></a> </p> <h2 id="people">People</h2> <p>The co-leaders of the GJP include <a href="/facts/Philip_Tetlock/EXKMF8Pw">Philip Tetlock</a>, <a href="/facts/Barbara_Mellers/YdE7WUhy">Barbara Mellers</a> and <a href="/facts/Don_A._Moore_(academic)/JLtczBTc">Don Moore</a>.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:16" href="#fn:16"><sup>16</sup></a> The website lists a total of about 30 team members, including the co-leaders as well as <a href="/facts/David_Budescu/LJNQINSX">David Budescu</a>, <a href="/facts/Lyle_Ungar/bPrbH712">Lyle Ungar</a>, <a href="/facts/Jonathan_Baron/mUaw0apL">Jonathan Baron</a>, and prediction-markets entrepreneur Emile Servan-Schreiber.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:17" href="#fn:17"><sup>17</sup></a> The advisory board included <a href="/facts/Daniel_Kahneman/YnI99yAy">Daniel Kahneman</a>, <a href="/facts/Robert_Jervis/T7NHBAMQ">Robert Jervis</a>, <a href="/facts/J._Scott_Armstrong/lD7qLrmU">J. Scott Armstrong</a>, <a href="/facts/Michael_Mauboussin/1ampj2rF">Michael Mauboussin</a>, <a href="/facts/Carl_Spetzler/IRuqC1Bv">Carl Spetzler</a> and <a href="/facts/Justin_Wolfers/euwGA363">Justin Wolfers</a>.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:18" href="#fn:18"><sup>18</sup></a> The study employed several thousand people as volunteer forecasters.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:19" href="#fn:19"><sup>19</sup></a> Using personality-trait tests, training methods and strategies the researchers at GJP were able to select forecasting participants with less cognitive bias than the average person; as the forecasting contest continued the researchers were able to further down select these individuals in groups of so-called <i>superforecasters</i>. The last season of the GJP enlisted a total of 260 superforecasters. </p> <h2 id="research">Research</h2> <p>A significant amount of research has been conducted based on the Good Judgment Project by the people involved with it.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:20" href="#fn:20"><sup>20</sup></a> The results show that harnessing a blend of statistics, psychology, training and various levels of interaction between individual forecasters, consistently produced the best forecast for several years in a row.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:21" href="#fn:21"><sup>21</sup></a> </p> <h2 id="good-judgment-inc">Good Judgment Inc.</h2> <p>A commercial <a href="/facts/Research_spin-off/GRI4L8MN">spin-off</a> of the Good Judgment Project started to operate on the web in July 2015 under the name Good Judgment Inc. Their services include forecasts on questions of general interest, custom forecasts, and training in Good Judgment's forecasting techniques.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:22" href="#fn:22"><sup>22</sup></a> Starting in September 2015, Good Judgment Inc has been running a public forecasting tournament at the Good Judgment Open site. Like the Good Judgment Project, Good Judgment Open has questions about geopolitical and financial events, although it also has questions about US politics, entertainment, and sports.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:23" href="#fn:23"><sup>23</sup></a><a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:24" href="#fn:24"><sup>24</sup></a> </p> <h2 id="media-coverage">Media coverage</h2> <p>GJP has repeatedly been discussed in <i><a href="/facts/The_Economist/KNjzFCVU">The Economist</a></i>.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:25" href="#fn:25"><sup>25</sup></a><a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:26" href="#fn:26"><sup>26</sup></a><a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:27" href="#fn:27"><sup>27</sup></a><a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:28" href="#fn:28"><sup>28</sup></a> GJP has also been covered in <i><a href="/facts/The_New_York_Times/T9marWVX">The New York Times</a></i>,<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:29" href="#fn:29"><sup>29</sup></a> <i><a href="/facts/The_Washington_Post/dRvzvqJc">The Washington Post</a></i>,<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:30" href="#fn:30"><sup>30</sup></a><a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:31" href="#fn:31"><sup>31</sup></a><a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:32" href="#fn:32"><sup>32</sup></a> and Co.Exist.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:33" href="#fn:33"><sup>33</sup></a> <a href="/facts/NPR/BohIW9Xg">NPR</a> aired a segment on The Good Judgment Project by the title "So You Think You're Smarter Than a CIA Agent", on April 2, 2014.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:34" href="#fn:34"><sup>34</sup></a> The <i><a href="/facts/Financial_Times/0ndae2YU">Financial Times</a></i> published an article on the GJP on September 5, 2014.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:35" href="#fn:35"><sup>35</sup></a> <i><a href="/facts/Washingtonian_(magazine)/ekf9p0nI">Washingtonian</a></i> published an article that mentioned the GJP on January 8, 2015.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:36" href="#fn:36"><sup>36</sup></a> The <a href="/facts/BBC/qFateIz8">BBC</a> and <i>The Washington Post</i> published articles on the GJP respectively on January 20, 21, and 29, 2015.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:37" href="#fn:37"><sup>37</sup></a><a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:38" href="#fn:38"><sup>38</sup></a><a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:39" href="#fn:39"><sup>39</sup></a> </p><p>The <i>Almanac of <a href="/facts/Menlo_Park%2c_California/mHQVj2Jx">Menlo Park</a></i> published a story on the GJP on January 29, 2015.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:40" href="#fn:40"><sup>40</sup></a> An article on the GJP appeared on the <a href="/facts/Philadelphia_Media_Network/Q5PdVeTc">portal of the <i>Philadelphia Inquirer</i></a>, Philly.com, on February 4, 2015.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:41" href="#fn:41"><sup>41</sup></a> The book <i><a href="/facts/Cass_Sunstein/XjJGHQzs">Wiser: Getting Beyond Groupthink to Make Groups Smarter</a></i> has a section detailing the involvement of the GJP in the tournament run by IARPA.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:42" href="#fn:42"><sup>42</sup></a> <i><a href="/facts/Psychology_Today/g5ccKEdt">Psychology Today</a></i> published online a short article summarizing the paper by Mellers, <i>et al</i>., that wraps up the main findings of the GJP.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:43" href="#fn:43"><sup>43</sup></a><a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:44" href="#fn:44"><sup>44</sup></a> </p><p>The project spawned a 2015 book by Tetlock and coauthored by Dan Gardner, <i>Superforecasting - The Art and Science of Prediction</i>, which divulges the main findings of the research conducted with the data from the GJP.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:45" href="#fn:45"><sup>45</sup></a> Co-author Gardner had already published a book in 2010, that quoted previous research by Tetlock that seeded the GJP effort.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:46" href="#fn:46"><sup>46</sup></a> A book review in the September 26, 2015, print edition of the <i>Economist</i> discusses the main concepts.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:47" href="#fn:47"><sup>47</sup></a> A <i><a href="/facts/Wall_Street_Journal/9Pkf2cYK">Wall Street Journal</a></i> article depicts it as: "The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman’s <i><a href="/facts/Thinking%2c_Fast_and_Slow/nnzRqhWL">Thinking, Fast and Slow</a></i>."<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:48" href="#fn:48"><sup>48</sup></a> The <i><a href="/facts/Harvard_Business_Review/leWeeqyj">Harvard Business Review</a></i> paired it with the book <i><a href="/facts/How_Not_to_Be_Wrong/rpU2Ktwk">How Not to Be Wrong: The Power of Mathematical Thinking</a></i> by <a href="/facts/Jordan_Ellenberg/XcLYP94v">Jordan Ellenberg</a>.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:49" href="#fn:49"><sup>49</sup></a> On September 30, 2015, NPR aired an episode of the <i><a href="/facts/Colin_McEnroe_Show/xt4xmFc6">Colin McEnroe Show</a></i> centering on the GJP and the book <i>Superforecasting</i>; guests on the show were Tetlock, IARPA Director <a href="/facts/Jason_Gaverick_Matheny/wnJ4qg4R">Jason Matheny</a>, and superforecaster Elaine Rich.<a class="footnote-ref" id="fnref:50" href="#fn:50"><sup>50</sup></a> </p> <h2 id="see-also">See also</h2> <ul><li><a href="/facts/Wisdom_of_the_crowd/qC8v2k9T">Wisdom of the crowd</a></li> <li><a href="/facts/Aggregative_Contingent_Estimation/T5FDYjg8">Aggregative Contingent Estimation</a></li> <li><a href="/facts/Intelligence_Advanced_Research_Projects_Activity/oLbo3Kj4">Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity</a></li> <li><a href="/facts/SciCast/SA8xT0lF">SciCast</a></li></ul> <h2 id="external-links">External links</h2> <ul><li><a href="http://goodjudgment.com/">Official website</a></li> <li><a href="https://www.gjopen.com/">Good Judgment Open</a></li></ul> <h2 id="references">References</h2> <ol> <li id="fn:1"><p>"Welcome to the Good Judgment Project". The Good Judgment Project. Retrieved May 5, 2014. <a href="http://www.gjopen.com/" target="_blank">http://www.gjopen.com/</a> <a href="#fnref:1" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li> <li id="fn:2"><p>"Who's who in the Good Judgment Project". The Good Judgment Project. July 27, 2011. Retrieved May 5, 2014. <a href="http://goodjudgmentproject.com/" target="_blank">http://goodjudgmentproject.com/</a> <a href="#fnref:2" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li> <li id="fn:3"><p>Brooks, David (March 21, 2013). "Forecasting Fox". New York Times. Retrieved May 5, 2014. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/22/opinion/brooks-forecasting-fox.html" target="_blank">https://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/22/opinion/brooks-forecasting-fox.html</a> <a href="#fnref:3" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li> <li id="fn:4"><p>"The Project". The Good Judgment Project. Archived from the original on May 6, 2014. Retrieved May 5, 2014. <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20140506201121/http://www.goodjudgmentproject.com/about_project.html" target="_blank">https://web.archive.org/web/20140506201121/http://www.goodjudgmentproject.com/about_project.html</a> <a href="#fnref:4" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li> <li id="fn:5"><p>Horowitz, Michael (November 26, 2013). "Good judgment in forecasting international affairs (and an invitation for season 3)". Washington Post. Retrieved May 5, 2014. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2013/11/26/good-judgment-in-forecasting-international-affairs-and-an-invitation-for-season-3/" target="_blank">https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2013/11/26/good-judgment-in-forecasting-international-affairs-and-an-invitation-for-season-3/</a> <a href="#fnref:5" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li> <li id="fn:6"><p>"About Superforecasting | Unprecedented Accurate & Precise Forecasting". Good Judgment. Retrieved 2022-02-17. <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/about/" target="_blank">https://goodjudgment.com/about/</a> <a href="#fnref:6" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li> <li id="fn:7"><p>Matthews, Dylan (2022-02-16). "How can we prevent major conflicts like a Russia-Ukraine war?". Vox. Retrieved 2022-02-17. <a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/2/16/22935927/russia-ukraine-great-power-conflict" target="_blank">https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2022/2/16/22935927/russia-ukraine-great-power-conflict</a> <a href="#fnref:7" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li> <li id="fn:8"><p>Dickenson, Matt (November 12, 2013). "Prediction and Good Judgment: Can ICEWS Inform Forecasts?". Predictive Heuristics. Retrieved May 24, 2014. <a href="http://predictiveheuristics.com/2013/11/12/prediction-and-good-judgment-can-icews-inform-forecasts/" target="_blank">http://predictiveheuristics.com/2013/11/12/prediction-and-good-judgment-can-icews-inform-forecasts/</a> <a href="#fnref:8" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li> <li id="fn:9"><p>Spiegel, Alix. "So You Think You're Smarter Than A CIA Agent". NPR.org. Retrieved 2014-08-18. <a href="https://www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/2014/04/02/297839429/-so-you-think-youre-smarter-than-a-cia-agent" target="_blank">https://www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/2014/04/02/297839429/-so-you-think-youre-smarter-than-a-cia-agent</a> <a href="#fnref:9" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li> <li id="fn:10"><p>"The idea behind the Good Judgment Project". The Good Judgment Project. July 27, 2011. Archived from the original on May 6, 2014. Retrieved May 5, 2014. <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20140506202243/http://goodjudgmentproject.com/blog/?p=4" target="_blank">https://web.archive.org/web/20140506202243/http://goodjudgmentproject.com/blog/?p=4</a> <a href="#fnref:10" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li> <li id="fn:11"><p>"The perils of prediction: Adventures in punditry". The Economist. September 2, 2011. Retrieved May 6, 2014. <a href="https://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2011/09/perils-prediction" target="_blank">https://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2011/09/perils-prediction</a> <a href="#fnref:11" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li> <li id="fn:12"><p>Horowitz, Michael (November 26, 2013). "Good judgment in forecasting international affairs (and an invitation for season 3)". Washington Post. Retrieved May 5, 2014. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2013/11/26/good-judgment-in-forecasting-international-affairs-and-an-invitation-for-season-3/" target="_blank">https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2013/11/26/good-judgment-in-forecasting-international-affairs-and-an-invitation-for-season-3/</a> <a href="#fnref:12" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li> <li id="fn:13"><p>Mellers, Barbara; Ungar, Lyle; Baron, Jonathan; Ramos, Jaime; Gurcay, Burcu; Fincher, Katrina; Scott, Sydney E.; Moore, Don; Atanasov, Pavel; Swift, Samuel A.; Murray, Terry; Stone, Eric; Tetlock, Philip E. (2014-05-01). "Psychological strategies for winning a geopolitical forecasting tournament". Psychological Science. 25 (5): 1106–1115. doi:10.1177/0956797614524255. ISSN 1467-9280. PMID 24659192. S2CID 42143367. <a href="https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4rg4n9vr" target="_blank">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4rg4n9vr</a> <a href="#fnref:13" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li> <li id="fn:14"><p>"The first championship season". Good Judgment. Retrieved 2022-02-17. <a href="https://goodjudgment.com/resources/the-superforecasters-track-record/the-first-championship-season/" target="_blank">https://goodjudgment.com/resources/the-superforecasters-track-record/the-first-championship-season/</a> <a href="#fnref:14" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li> <li id="fn:15"><p>Dickenson, Matt (November 12, 2013). "Prediction and Good Judgment: Can ICEWS Inform Forecasts?". Predictive Heuristics. Retrieved May 24, 2014. <a href="http://predictiveheuristics.com/2013/11/12/prediction-and-good-judgment-can-icews-inform-forecasts/" target="_blank">http://predictiveheuristics.com/2013/11/12/prediction-and-good-judgment-can-icews-inform-forecasts/</a> <a href="#fnref:15" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li> <li id="fn:16"><p>"Welcome to the Good Judgment Project". The Good Judgment Project. Retrieved May 5, 2014. <a href="http://www.gjopen.com/" target="_blank">http://www.gjopen.com/</a> <a href="#fnref:16" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li> <li id="fn:17"><p>"Team". The Good Judgment Project. Retrieved May 5, 2014. <a href="http://www.goodjudgmentproject.com/" target="_blank">http://www.goodjudgmentproject.com/</a> <a href="#fnref:17" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li> <li id="fn:18"><p>"Freakonomics". Sign Up for a Prediction Tournament. 2011-08-04. <a href="http://freakonomics.com/2011/08/04/sign-up-for-a-prediction-tournament/" target="_blank">http://freakonomics.com/2011/08/04/sign-up-for-a-prediction-tournament/</a> <a href="#fnref:18" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li> <li id="fn:19"><p>Mellers, Barbara; Ungar, Lyle; Baron, Jonathan; Ramos, Jaime; Gurcay, Burcu; Fincher, Katrina; Scott, Sydney E.; Moore, Don; Atanasov, Pavel; Swift, Samuel A.; Murray, Terry; Stone, Eric; Tetlock, Philip E. (2014-05-01). "Psychological strategies for winning a geopolitical forecasting tournament". Psychological Science. 25 (5): 1106–1115. doi:10.1177/0956797614524255. ISSN 1467-9280. PMID 24659192. S2CID 42143367. <a href="https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4rg4n9vr" target="_blank">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4rg4n9vr</a> <a href="#fnref:19" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li> <li id="fn:20"><p>Atanasov, Pavel; Rescober, Phillip; Stone, Eric; Swift, Samuel A.; Servan-Schreiber, Emile; Tetlock, Philip; Ungar, Lyle; Mellers, Barbara (2016-04-22). "Distilling the Wisdom of Crowds: Prediction Markets vs. Prediction Polls". Management Science. 63 (3): 691–706. doi:10.1287/mnsc.2015.2374. ISSN 0025-1909.Ungar, Lyle; Mellers, Barbara; Satopää, Ville; Baron, Jon; Tetlock, Philip E.; Ramos, Jaime; Swift, Sam. "The Good Judgment Project: A Large Scale Test of Different Methods of Combining Expert Predictions". Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence.Ulfelder, Jay (March 27, 2014). Using the 'Wisdom of (Expert) Crowds' to Forecast Mass Atrocities (Report). doi:10.2139/ssrn.2418980. SSRN 2418980.Atanasov, P.; Witkowski, J.; Ungar, L.; Mellers, B.; Tetlock, P. (2020). "Small steps to accuracy: Incremental belief updaters are better forecasters". Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. 160: 19–35. doi:10.1016/j.obhdp.2020.02.001. S2CID 216273470. <a href="https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/abs/10.1287/mnsc.2015.2374" target="_blank">https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/abs/10.1287/mnsc.2015.2374</a> <a href="#fnref:20" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li> <li id="fn:21"><p>Mellers, Barbara; Ungar, Lyle; Baron, Jonathan; Ramos, Jaime; Gurcay, Burcu; Fincher, Katrina; Scott, Sydney E.; Moore, Don; Atanasov, Pavel; Swift, Samuel A.; Murray, Terry; Stone, Eric; Tetlock, Philip E. (2014-05-01). "Psychological strategies for winning a geopolitical forecasting tournament". Psychological Science. 25 (5): 1106–1115. doi:10.1177/0956797614524255. ISSN 1467-9280. PMID 24659192. S2CID 42143367. <a href="https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4rg4n9vr" target="_blank">https://escholarship.org/uc/item/4rg4n9vr</a> <a href="#fnref:21" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li> <li id="fn:22"><p>Brody, Liz (January 1, 2022). "Meet the Elite Team of Superforecasters Who Have Turned Future-Gazing Into a Science". Entrepreneur. <a href="https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/395236" target="_blank">https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/395236</a> <a href="#fnref:22" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li> <li id="fn:23"><p>Gossett, Stephen (August 6, 2020). "How the Good Judgment Project's Superforecasters Use Data to Make Predictions". builtin.com. Retrieved 2022-06-07. <a href="https://builtin.com/data-science/superforecasters-good-judgement" target="_blank">https://builtin.com/data-science/superforecasters-good-judgement</a> <a href="#fnref:23" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li> <li id="fn:24"><p>"Good Judgment® Open". www.gjopen.com. Retrieved 2022-02-17. <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/" target="_blank">https://www.gjopen.com/</a> <a href="#fnref:24" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li> <li id="fn:25"><p>"The perils of prediction: Adventures in punditry". The Economist. September 2, 2011. Retrieved May 6, 2014. <a href="https://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2011/09/perils-prediction" target="_blank">https://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2011/09/perils-prediction</a> <a href="#fnref:25" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li> <li id="fn:26"><p>"Monetary policy: How likely is deflation?". The Economist. September 13, 2011. Retrieved May 6, 2014. <a href="https://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2011/09/monetary-policy-0" target="_blank">https://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2011/09/monetary-policy-0</a> <a href="#fnref:26" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li> <li id="fn:27"><p>"International: Who's good at forecasts? How to sort the best from the rest". The Economist. November 18, 2013. Retrieved May 6, 2014. <a href="https://www.economist.com/news/21589145-how-sort-best-rest-whos-good-forecasts" target="_blank">https://www.economist.com/news/21589145-how-sort-best-rest-whos-good-forecasts</a> <a href="#fnref:27" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li> <li id="fn:28"><p>"The experts' best bets". The Economist. November 10, 2021. Retrieved June 7, 2022. <a href="https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/10/the-experts-best-bets" target="_blank">https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2021/11/10/the-experts-best-bets</a> <a href="#fnref:28" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li> <li id="fn:29"><p>Brooks, David (March 21, 2013). "Forecasting Fox". New York Times. Retrieved May 5, 2014. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/22/opinion/brooks-forecasting-fox.html" target="_blank">https://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/22/opinion/brooks-forecasting-fox.html</a> <a href="#fnref:29" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li> <li id="fn:30"><p>Horowitz, Michael (November 26, 2013). "Good judgment in forecasting international affairs (and an invitation for season 3)". Washington Post. Retrieved May 5, 2014. <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2013/11/26/good-judgment-in-forecasting-international-affairs-and-an-invitation-for-season-3/" target="_blank">https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2013/11/26/good-judgment-in-forecasting-international-affairs-and-an-invitation-for-season-3/</a> <a href="#fnref:30" class="footnote-back-ref">↩</a></p></li> <li id="fn:31"><p>Ignatius, David (November 1, 2013). "More chatter than needed". Washington Post. 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