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Reference.org
First-order second-moment method
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<p>In probability theory, the first-order second-moment (FOSM) method, also referenced as mean value first-order second-moment (MVFOSM) method, is a probabilistic method to determine the stochastic moments of a function with random input variables. The name is based on the derivation, which uses a <i>first-order</i> <a href="/facts/Taylor_series/M0aTuftH">Taylor series</a> and the first and <i>second moments</i> of the input variables. </p>