The Good Judgment Project

The Good Judgment Project (GJP) is an organization dedicated to "harnessing the wisdom of the crowd to forecast world events". It was co-created by <a href="/facts/Philip_E._Tetlock/EXKMF8Pw">Philip E. Tetlock</a> (author of Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction and <a href="/facts/Expert_Political_Judgment/MmPr4MMR">Expert Political Judgment</a>), decision scientist <a href="/facts/Barbara_Mellers/YdE7WUhy">Barbara Mellers</a>, and <a href="/facts/Don_A._Moore_(academic)/JLtczBTc">Don Moore</a>, all professors at the <a href="/facts/University_of_Pennsylvania/LBBBULox">University of Pennsylvania</a>. 
The project began as a participant in the <a href="/facts/Aggregative_Contingent_Estimation/T5FDYjg8">Aggregative Contingent Estimation</a> (ACE) program of the <a href="/facts/Intelligence_Advanced_Research_Projects_Activity/oLbo3Kj4">Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity</a> (IARPA). It then extended its <a href="/facts/Wisdom_of_the_crowd/qC8v2k9T">crowd wisdom</a> to commercial activities, recruiting forecasters and aggregating the predictions of the most historically accurate among them to <a href="/facts/Forecasting/pwFtGyzM">forecast future events</a>. Predictions are <a href="/facts/Scoring_rule/h5nm87vd">scored</a> using <a href="/facts/Brier_score/Bd046S1k">Brier scores</a>. The top forecasters in GJP are "reportedly 30% better than intelligence officers with access to actual classified information."

The Good Judgment Project open-in-new

The Good Judgment Project