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Government by algorithm
Alternative form of government or social ordering

Government by algorithm, also known as algorithmic governance or government by algorithms, applies computational algorithms to regulate law enforcement and everyday activities like transportation. Emerging in academic literature around 2013, it overlaps with automation of the judiciary and extends beyond traditional e-government practices. Some equate it with cyberocracy, a government form relying on effective information use, though algorithms are just one method. Scholars like Nello Cristianini suggest that integrating human society with algorithmic regulation, such as reputation systems, creates a social machine, highlighting new governance dynamics enabled by technology.

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History

In 1962, the director of the Institute for Information Transmission Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences in Moscow (later Kharkevich Institute),20 Alexander Kharkevich, published an article in the journal "Communist" about a computer network for processing information and control of the economy.2122 In fact, he proposed to make a network like the modern Internet for the needs of algorithmic governance (Project OGAS). This created a serious concern among CIA analysts.23 In particular, Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr. warned that "by 1970 the USSR may have a radically new production technology, involving total enterprises or complexes of industries, managed by closed-loop, feedback control employing self-teaching computers".24

Between 1971 and 1973, the Chilean government carried out Project Cybersyn during the presidency of Salvador Allende. This project was aimed at constructing a distributed decision support system to improve the management of the national economy.2526 Elements of the project were used in 1972 to successfully overcome the traffic collapse caused by a CIA-sponsored strike of forty thousand truck drivers.27

Also in the 1960s and 1970s, Herbert A. Simon championed expert systems as tools for rationalization and evaluation of administrative behavior.28 The automation of rule-based processes was an ambition of tax agencies over many decades resulting in varying success.29 Early work from this period includes Thorne McCarty's influential TAXMAN project30 in the US and Ronald Stamper's LEGOL project31 in the UK. In 1993, the computer scientist Paul Cockshott from the University of Glasgow and the economist Allin Cottrell from the Wake Forest University published the book Towards a New Socialism, where they claim to demonstrate the possibility of a democratically planned economy built on modern computer technology.32 The Honourable Justice Michael Kirby published a paper in 1998, where he expressed optimism that the then-available computer technologies such as legal expert system could evolve to computer systems, which will strongly affect the practice of courts.33 In 2006, attorney Lawrence Lessig, known for the slogan "Code is law", wrote:

[T]he invisible hand of cyberspace is building an architecture that is quite the opposite of its architecture at its birth. This invisible hand, pushed by government and by commerce, is constructing an architecture that will perfect control and make highly efficient regulation possible34

Since the 2000s, algorithms have been designed and used to automatically analyze surveillance videos.35

In his 2006 book Virtual Migration, A. Aneesh developed the concept of algocracy — information technologies constrain human participation in public decision making.3637 Aneesh differentiated algocratic systems from bureaucratic systems (legal-rational regulation) as well as market-based systems (price-based regulation).38

In 2013, algorithmic regulation was coined by Tim O'Reilly, founder and CEO of O'Reilly Media Inc.:

Sometimes the "rules" aren't really even rules. Gordon Bruce, the former CIO of the city of Honolulu, explained to me that when he entered government from the private sector and tried to make changes, he was told, "That's against the law." His reply was "OK. Show me the law." "Well, it isn't really a law. It's a regulation." "OK. Show me the regulation." "Well, it isn't really a regulation. It's a policy that was put in place by Mr. Somebody twenty years ago." "Great. We can change that!" [...] Laws should specify goals, rights, outcomes, authorities, and limits. If specified broadly, those laws can stand the test of time. Regulations, which specify how to execute those laws in much more detail, should be regarded in much the same way that programmers regard their code and algorithms, that is, as a constantly updated toolset to achieve the outcomes specified in the laws. [...] It's time for government to enter the age of big data. Algorithmic regulation is an idea whose time has come.39

In 2017, Ukraine's Ministry of Justice ran experimental government auctions using blockchain technology to ensure transparency and hinder corruption in governmental transactions.40 "Government by Algorithm?" was the central theme introduced at Data for Policy 2017 conference held on 6–7 September 2017 in London.41

Examples

Smart cities

A smart city is an urban area where collected surveillance data is used to improve various operations. Increase in computational power allows more automated decision making and replacement of public agencies by algorithmic governance.42 In particular, the combined use of artificial intelligence and blockchains for IoT may lead to the creation of sustainable smart city ecosystems.43 Intelligent street lighting in Glasgow is an example of successful government application of AI algorithms.44 A study of smart city initiatives in the US shows that it requires public sector as a main organizer and coordinator, the private sector as a technology and infrastructure provider, and universities as expertise contributors.45

The cryptocurrency millionaire Jeffrey Berns proposed the operation of local governments in Nevada by tech firms in 2021.46 Berns bought 67,000 acres (271 km2) in Nevada's rural Storey County (population 4,104) for $170,000,000 (£121,000,000) in 2018 in order to develop a smart city with more than 36,000 residents that could generate an annual output of $4,600,000,000.47 Cryptocurrency would be allowed for payments.48 Blockchains, Inc. "Innovation Zone" was canceled in September 2021 after it failed to secure enough water49 for the planned 36,000 residents, through water imports from a site located 100 miles away in the neighboring Washoe County.50 A similar water pipeline proposed in 2007 was estimated to cost $100 million and would have taken about 10 years to develop.51 With additional water rights purchased from Tahoe Reno Industrial General Improvement District, "Innovation Zone" would have acquired enough water for about 15,400 homes - meaning that it would have barely covered its planned 15,000 dwelling units, leaving nothing for the rest of the projected city and its 22 million square-feet of industrial development.52

In Saudi Arabia, the planners of The Line assert that it will be monitored by AI to improve life by using data and predictive modeling.53

Reputation systems

See also: Credit score

Tim O'Reilly suggested that data sources and reputation systems combined in algorithmic regulation can outperform traditional regulations.54 For instance, once taxi-drivers are rated by passengers, the quality of their services will improve automatically and "drivers who provide poor service are eliminated".55 O'Reilly's suggestion is based on the control-theoretic concept of feed-back loopimprovements and disimprovements of reputation enforce desired behavior.56 The usage of feedback-loops for the management of social systems has already been suggested in management cybernetics by Stafford Beer before.57

These connections are explored by Nello Cristianini and Teresa Scantamburlo, where the reputation-credit scoring system is modeled as an incentive given to the citizens and computed by a social machine, so that rational agents would be motivated to increase their score by adapting their behaviour. Several ethical aspects of that technology are still being discussed.58

China's Social Credit System was said to be a mass surveillance effort with a centralized numerical score for each citizen given for their actions, though newer reports say that this is a widespread misconception.596061

Smart contracts

Smart contracts, cryptocurrencies, and decentralized autonomous organization are mentioned as means to replace traditional ways of governance.626364 Cryptocurrencies are currencies which are enabled by algorithms without a governmental central bank.65 Central bank digital currency often employs similar technology, but is differentiated from the fact that it does use a central bank. It is soon to be employed by major unions and governments such as the European Union and China. Smart contracts are self-executable contracts, whose objectives are the reduction of need in trusted governmental intermediators, arbitrations and enforcement costs.6667 A decentralized autonomous organization is an organization represented by smart contracts that is transparent, controlled by shareholders and not influenced by a central government.686970 Smart contracts have been discussed for use in such applications as use in (temporary) employment contracts7172 and automatic transfership of funds and property (i.e. inheritance, upon registration of a death certificate).73747576 Some countries such as Georgia and Sweden have already launched blockchain programs focusing on property (land titles and real estate ownership)77787980 Ukraine is also looking at other areas too such as state registers.81

Algorithms in government agencies

See also: Artificial intelligence in government

According to a study of Stanford University, 45% of the studied US federal agencies have experimented with AI and related machine learning (ML) tools up to 2020.82 US federal agencies counted the number of artificial intelligence applications, which are listed below.83 53% of these applications were produced by in-house experts.84 Commercial providers of residual applications include Palantir Technologies.85

Agency nameNumber of use cases
Office of Justice Programs12
Securities and Exchange Commission10
National Aeronautics and Space Administration9
Food and Drug Administration8
United States Geological Survey8
United States Postal Service8
Social Security Administration7
United States Patent and Trademark Office6
Bureau of Labor Statistics5
U.S. Customs and Border Protection4

In 2012, NOPD started a collaboration with Palantir Technologies in the field of predictive policing.86 Besides Palantir's Gotham software, other similar (numerical analysis software) used by police agencies (such as the NCRIC) include SAS.87

In the fight against money laundering, FinCEN employs the FinCEN Artificial Intelligence System (FAIS) since 1995.8889

National health administration entities and organisations such as AHIMA (American Health Information Management Association) hold medical records. Medical records serve as the central repository for planning patient care and documenting communication among patient and health care provider and professionals contributing to the patient's care. In the EU, work is ongoing on a European Health Data Space which supports the use of health data.90

US Department of Homeland Security has employed the software ATLAS, which run on Amazon Cloud. It scanned more than 16.5 million records of naturalized Americans and flagged approximately 124,000 of them for manual analysis and review by USCIS officers regarding denaturalization.9192 They were flagged due to potential fraud, public safety and national security issues. Some of the scanned data came from Terrorist Screening Database and National Crime Information Center.

The NarxCare is a US software,93 which combines data from the prescription registries of various U.S. states9495 and uses machine learning to generate various three-digit "risk scores" for prescriptions of medications and an overall "Overdose Risk Score", collectively referred to as Narx Scores,96 in a process that potentially includes EMS and criminal justice data97 as well as court records.98

In Estonia, artificial intelligence is used in its e-government to make it more automated and seamless. A virtual assistant will guide citizens through any interactions they have with the government. Automated and proactive services "push" services to citizens at key events of their lives (including births, bereavements, unemployment). One example is the automated registering of babies when they are born.99 Estonia's X-Road system will also be rebuilt to include even more privacy control and accountability into the way the government uses citizen's data.100

In Costa Rica, the possible digitalization of public procurement activities (i.e. tenders for public works) has been investigated. The paper discussing this possibility mentions that the use of ICT in procurement has several benefits such as increasing transparency, facilitating digital access to public tenders, reducing direct interaction between procurement officials and companies at moments of high integrity risk, increasing outreach and competition, and easier detection of irregularities.101

Besides using e-tenders for regular public works (construction of buildings, roads), e-tenders can also be used for reforestation projects and other carbon sink restoration projects.102 Carbon sink restoration projects may be part of the nationally determined contributions plans in order to reach the national Paris agreement goals.

Government procurement audit software can also be used.103104 Audits are performed in some countries after subsidies have been received.

Some government agencies provide track and trace systems for services they offer. An example is track and trace for applications done by citizens (i.e. driving license procurement).105

Some government services use issue tracking systems to keep track of ongoing issues.106107108109

Justice by algorithm

Judges' decisions in Australia are supported by the "Split Up" software in cases of determining the percentage of a split after a divorce.110 COMPAS software is used in the USA to assess the risk of recidivism in courts.111112 According to the statement of Beijing Internet Court, China is the first country to create an internet court or cyber court.113114115 The Chinese AI judge is a virtual recreation of an actual female judge. She "will help the court's judges complete repetitive basic work, including litigation reception, thus enabling professional practitioners to focus better on their trial work".116 Also, Estonia plans to employ artificial intelligence to decide small-claim cases of less than €7,000.117

Lawbots can perform tasks that are typically done by paralegals or young associates at law firms. One such technology used by US law firms to assist in legal research is from ROSS Intelligence,118 and others vary in sophistication and dependence on scripted algorithms.119 Another legal technology chatbot application is DoNotPay.

Algorithms in education

Further information: Ofqual exam results algorithm

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, in-person final exams were impossible for thousands of students.120 The public high school Westminster High employed algorithms to assign grades. UK's Department for Education also employed a statistical calculus to assign final grades in A-levels, due to the pandemic.121

Besides use in grading, software systems like AI were used in preparation for college entrance exams.122

AI teaching assistants are being developed and used for education (e.g. Georgia Tech's Jill Watson)123124 and there is also an ongoing debate on the possibility of teachers being entirely replaced by AI systems (e.g. in homeschooling).125

AI politicians

See also: Chatbot § Politics

In 2018, an activist named Michihito Matsuda ran for mayor in the Tama city area of Tokyo as a human proxy for an artificial intelligence program.126 While election posters and campaign material used the term robot, and displayed stock images of a feminine android, the "AI mayor" was in fact a machine learning algorithm trained using Tama city datasets.127 The project was backed by high-profile executives Tetsuzo Matsumoto of Softbank and Norio Murakami of Google.128 Michihito Matsuda came third in the election, being defeated by Hiroyuki Abe.129 Organisers claimed that the 'AI mayor' was programmed to analyze citizen petitions put forward to the city council in a more 'fair and balanced' way than human politicians.130

In 2018, Cesar Hidalgo presented the idea of augumented democracy.131 In an augumented democracy, legislation is done by digital twins of every single person.

In 2019, AI-powered messenger chatbot SAM participated in the discussions on social media connected to an electoral race in New Zealand.132 The creator of SAM, Nick Gerritsen, believed SAM would be advanced enough to run as a candidate by late 2020, when New Zealand had its next general election.133

In 2022, the chatbot "Leader Lars" or "Leder Lars" was nominated for The Synthetic Party to run in the 2022 Danish parliamentary election,134 and was built by the artist collective Computer Lars.135 Leader Lars differed from earlier virtual politicians by leading a political party and by not pretending to be an objective candidate.136 This chatbot engaged in critical discussions on politics with users from around the world.137

In 2023, In the Japanese town of Manazuru, a mayoral candidate called "AI Mayer" hopes to be the first AI-powered officeholder in Japan in November 2023. This candidacy is said to be supported by a group led by Michihito Matsuda 138

In the 2024 United Kingdom general election, a businessman named Steve Endacott ran for the constituency of Brighton Pavilion as an AI avatar named "AI Steve",139 saying that constituents could interact with AI Steve to shape policy. Endacott stated that he would only attend Parliament to vote based on policies which had garnered at least 50% support.140 AI Steve placed last with 179 votes.141

Management of infection

See also: Digital contact tracing, Disease surveillance, and COVID-19 apps

In February 2020, China launched a mobile app to deal with the Coronavirus outbreak142 called "close-contact-detector".143 Users are asked to enter their name and ID number. The app is able to detect "close contact" using surveillance data (i.e. using public transport records, including trains and flights)144 and therefore a potential risk of infection. Every user can also check the status of three other users. To make this inquiry users scan a Quick Response (QR) code on their smartphones using apps like Alipay or WeChat.145 The close contact detector can be accessed via popular mobile apps including Alipay. If a potential risk is detected, the app not only recommends self-quarantine, it also alerts local health officials.146

Alipay also has the Alipay Health Code which is used to keep citizens safe. This system generates a QR code in one of three colors (green, yellow, or red) after users fill in a form on Alipay with personal details. A green code enables the holder to move around unrestricted. A yellow code requires the user to stay at home for seven days and red means a two-week quarantine. In some cities such as Hangzhou, it has become nearly impossible to get around without showing one's Alipay code.147

In Cannes, France, monitoring software has been used on footage shot by CCTV cameras, allowing to monitor their compliance to local social distancing and mask wearing during the COVID-19 pandemic. The system does not store identifying data, but rather allows to alert city authorities and police where breaches of the mask and mask wearing rules are spotted (allowing fining to be carried out where needed). The algorithms used by the monitoring software can be incorporated into existing surveillance systems in public spaces (hospitals, stations, airports, shopping centres, ...) 148

Cellphone data is used to locate infected patients in South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and other countries.149150 In March 2020, the Israeli government enabled security agencies to track mobile phone data of people supposed to have coronavirus. The measure was taken to enforce quarantine and protect those who may come into contact with infected citizens.151 Also in March 2020, Deutsche Telekom shared private cellphone data with the federal government agency, Robert Koch Institute, in order to research and prevent the spread of the virus.152 Russia deployed facial recognition technology to detect quarantine breakers.153 Italian regional health commissioner Giulio Gallera said that "40% of people are continuing to move around anyway", as he has been informed by mobile phone operators.154 In USA, Europe and UK, Palantir Technologies is taken in charge to provide COVID-19 tracking services.155

Prevention and management of environmental disasters

See also: Early warning system

Tsunamis can be detected by tsunami warning systems. They can make use of AI.156157 Floodings can also be detected using AI systems.158 Wildfires can be predicted using AI systems.159160 Wildfire detection is possible by AI systems (i.e. through satellite data, aerial imagery, and GPS phone personnel position) and can help in the evacuation of people during wildfires,161 to investigate how householders responded in wildfires162 and spotting wildfire in real time using computer vision.163164 Earthquake detection systems are now improving alongside the development of AI technology through measuring seismic data and implementing complex algorithms to improve detection and prediction rates.165166167 Earthquake monitoring, phase picking, and seismic signal detection have developed through AI algorithms of deep-learning, analysis, and computational models.168 Locust breeding areas can be approximated using machine learning, which could help to stop locust swarms in an early phase.169

Reception

Benefits

See also: Techno-progressivism

Algorithmic regulation is supposed to be a system of governance where more exact data, collected from citizens via their smart devices and computers, is used to more efficiently organize human life as a collective.170171 As Deloitte estimated in 2017, automation of US government work could save 96.7 million federal hours annually, with a potential savings of $3.3 billion; at the high end, this rises to 1.2 billion hours and potential annual savings of $41.1 billion.172

Criticism

There are potential risks associated with the use of algorithms in government. Those include:

According to a 2016's book Weapons of Math Destruction, algorithms and big data are suspected to increase inequality due to opacity, scale and damage.176

A 2021 article published in the Annual Review of Sociology, explored the social implications of the widespread use of algorithms in modern institutions. The authors introduced the concepts of "coding elite" and "cybertariat" to describe, respectively, those who control digital means of production (e.g., software developers, tech CEOs, investors, and computer science and engineering professors) and those who are exploited by them (e.g., platform workers, precarious workers, unpaid users, and content moderators).177

There is also a serious concern that gaming by the regulated parties might occur, once more transparency is brought into the decision making by algorithmic governance, regulated parties might try to manipulate their outcome in own favor and even use adversarial machine learning.178179 According to Harari, the conflict between democracy and dictatorship is seen as a conflict of two different data-processing systems—AI and algorithms may swing the advantage toward the latter by processing enormous amounts of information centrally.180

In 2018, the Netherlands employed an algorithmic system SyRI (Systeem Risico Indicatie) to detect citizens perceived as being high risk for committing welfare fraud, which quietly flagged thousands of people to investigators.181 This caused a public protest. The district court of Hague shut down SyRI referencing Article 8 of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR).182

The contributors of the 2019 documentary iHuman expressed apprehension of "infinitely stable dictatorships" created by government AI.183

Due to public criticism, the Australian government announced the suspension of Robodebt scheme key functions in 2019, and a review of all debts raised using the programme.184

In 2020, algorithms assigning exam grades to students in the UK sparked open protest under the banner "Fuck the algorithm."185 This protest was successful and the grades were taken back.186

In 2020, the US government software ATLAS, which run on Amazon Cloud, sparked uproar from activists and Amazon's own employees.187

In 2021, Eticas Foundation launched a database of governmental algorithms called Observatory of Algorithms with Social Impact (OASI).188

Algorithmic bias and transparency

Main article: Algorithmic bias

An initial approach towards transparency included the open-sourcing of algorithms.189 Software code can be looked into and improvements can be proposed through source-code-hosting facilities.

Public acceptance

A 2019 poll conducted by IE University's Center for the Governance of Change in Spain found that 25% of citizens from selected European countries were somewhat or totally in favor of letting an artificial intelligence make important decisions about how their country is run.190 The following table lists the results by country:

CountryPercentage
France25%
Germany31%
Ireland29%
Italy28%
Netherlands43%
Portugal19%
Spain26%
UK31%

Researchers found some evidence that when citizens perceive their political leaders or security providers to be untrustworthy, disappointing, or immoral, they prefer to replace them by artificial agents, whom they consider to be more reliable.191 The evidence is established by survey experiments on university students of all genders.

A 2021 poll by IE University indicates that 51% of Europeans are in favor of reducing the number of national parliamentarians and reallocating these seats to an algorithm. This proposal has garnered substantial support in Spain (66%), Italy (59%), and Estonia (56%). Conversely, the citizens of Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and Sweden largely oppose the idea.192 The survey results exhibit significant generational differences. Over 60% of Europeans aged 25-34 and 56% of those aged 34-44 support the measure, while a majority of respondents over the age of 55 are against it. International perspectives also vary: 75% of Chinese respondents support the proposal, whereas 60% of Americans are opposed.193

The 1970 David Bowie song "Saviour Machine" depicts an algocratic society run by the titular mechanism, which ended famine and war through "logic" but now threatens to cause an apocalypse due to its fear that its subjects have become excessively complacent.194

The novels Daemon (2006) and Freedom™ (2010) by Daniel Suarez describe a fictional scenario of global algorithmic regulation.195 Matthew De Abaitua's If Then imagines an algorithm supposedly based on "fairness" recreating a premodern rural economy.196

See also

  • Law portal

Citations

General and cited references

Look up algocracy in Wiktionary, the free dictionary.

References

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