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Volfefe index
Stock market index

The Volfefe Index was a stock market index of volatility in market sentiment for US Treasury bonds caused by tweets by President Donald Trump.

Bloomberg News observed Volfefe was created due to the statistical significance of Trump tweets on bond prices. ABC News Online posited Volfefe could help analyze interest rate risk in the face of "unpredictable" activity on social media by Trump.

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Etymology

The name "Volfefe" is a portmanteau of the words volatility and covfefe, the latter being a word (widely presumed to be a typographical error) posted in a 2017 tweet by Trump.678

Creation

Volfefe was launched by JPMorgan Chase on September 9, 2019.91011

Methods

In forming the basis of the methodology behind Volfefe, JPMorgan Chase used software to analyse the corpus of Trump's tweets.121314 14,000 tweets were used in the analysis to form the initial projections for their software.15 Their analysts determined that there were direct correlations between tweets and subsequent market movements.161718 These market movements were most notably evidenced when the tweet specifically references financial matters including the US Federal Reserve.1920 The tweets issued during the working day of the New York Stock Exchange were more likely to cause a change in market sentiment; however, it was noted that the tweets can come at any time of day and thus have an effect on markets around the world.2122 Key words in tweets often include "China", "billion", "products", "Democrats", "great", "dollars", "tariffs" and "trade".2324

Analysis

Bloomberg News noted, "JPMorgan’s 'Volfefe Index,' named after Trump’s mysterious covfefe tweet from May 2017, suggests that the president’s electronic musings are having a statistically significant impact on Treasury yields."25

ABC News Online commented JP Morgan created Volfefe, "to measure how much impact Mr Trump's unpredictable tweets have on US interest rates".26

See also

Wikimedia Commons has media related to Donald Trump and Twitter.

References

  1. Alloway, Tracy (September 9, 2019), "JPMorgan Creates 'Volfefe' Index to Track Trump Tweet Impact", Bloomberg News, retrieved September 10, 2019 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-09/jpmorgan-creates-volfefe-index-to-track-trump-tweet-impact ↩

  2. Chau, David (September 10, 2019), "Donald Trump's impact on market volatility tracked by new JP Morgan 'Volfefe' index", ABC News Online, retrieved September 10, 2019 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-10/trump-volfefe-index/11495726 ↩

  3. Ahmed, Saqib Iqbal (September 9, 2019), "'Volfefe': a volatility index for the Trump era", Reuters, retrieved September 10, 2019 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-markets-trump-volatility/volfefe-a-volatility-index-for-the-trump-era-idUSKCN1VU1XR ↩

  4. Alloway, Tracy (September 9, 2019), "JPMorgan Creates 'Volfefe' Index to Track Trump Tweet Impact", Bloomberg News, retrieved September 10, 2019 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-09/jpmorgan-creates-volfefe-index-to-track-trump-tweet-impact ↩

  5. Chau, David (September 10, 2019), "Donald Trump's impact on market volatility tracked by new JP Morgan 'Volfefe' index", ABC News Online, retrieved September 10, 2019 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-10/trump-volfefe-index/11495726 ↩

  6. Ahmed, Saqib Iqbal (September 9, 2019), "'Volfefe': a volatility index for the Trump era", Reuters, retrieved September 10, 2019 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-markets-trump-volatility/volfefe-a-volatility-index-for-the-trump-era-idUSKCN1VU1XR ↩

  7. Gibson, Kate (September 9, 2019), "'Volfefe index' tracks market impact of Trump's tweets", CBS News, retrieved September 10, 2019 https://www.cbsnews.com/news/volfefe-index-jpmorgan-chase-creates-index-to-track-market-impact-of-president-trumps-tweets/ ↩

  8. Horowitz, Julia (September 9, 2019), "JPMorgan has created a 'Volfefe Index' to track how Trump's tweets move markets", CNN, retrieved September 9, 2019 https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/09/investing/jpmorgan-trump-tweets-volfefe-index/ ↩

  9. Alloway, Tracy (September 9, 2019), "JPMorgan Creates 'Volfefe' Index to Track Trump Tweet Impact", Bloomberg News, retrieved September 10, 2019 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-09/jpmorgan-creates-volfefe-index-to-track-trump-tweet-impact ↩

  10. Ahmed, Saqib Iqbal (September 9, 2019), "'Volfefe': a volatility index for the Trump era", Reuters, retrieved September 10, 2019 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-markets-trump-volatility/volfefe-a-volatility-index-for-the-trump-era-idUSKCN1VU1XR ↩

  11. Gibson, Kate (September 9, 2019), "'Volfefe index' tracks market impact of Trump's tweets", CBS News, retrieved September 10, 2019 https://www.cbsnews.com/news/volfefe-index-jpmorgan-chase-creates-index-to-track-market-impact-of-president-trumps-tweets/ ↩

  12. Khan, Yusuf (September 9, 2019), "A JPMorgan bot analyzed 14,000 Trump tweets and found they're having an increasingly sharp impact on markets", Business Insider, archived from the original on November 10, 2021, retrieved September 10, 2019 https://web.archive.org/web/20211110152618/https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/jpmorgan-volvefe-index-on-impact-of-trump-tweets-on-market-volatility-2019-9 ↩

  13. Kollmeyer, Barbara (September 9, 2019), "J.P. Morgan made a 'Volfefe' index to track how Trump tweets move the bond market — here's what it shows", MarketWatch, retrieved September 10, 2019 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/are-trump-tweets-influencing-bond-volatility-jp-morgans-volfefe-index-aims-to-find-out-2019-09-09 ↩

  14. Ashworth, Louis (September 10, 2019), "The Volfefe Index aims to track just how Donald Trump's tweets move markets", The Daily Telegraph, retrieved September 10, 2019 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/09/10/volfefe-index-aims-track-just-donald-trumps-tweets-move-markets/ ↩

  15. Khan, Yusuf (September 9, 2019), "A JPMorgan bot analyzed 14,000 Trump tweets and found they're having an increasingly sharp impact on markets", Business Insider, archived from the original on November 10, 2021, retrieved September 10, 2019 https://web.archive.org/web/20211110152618/https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/jpmorgan-volvefe-index-on-impact-of-trump-tweets-on-market-volatility-2019-9 ↩

  16. Horowitz, Julia (September 9, 2019), "JPMorgan has created a 'Volfefe Index' to track how Trump's tweets move markets", CNN, retrieved September 9, 2019 https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/09/investing/jpmorgan-trump-tweets-volfefe-index/ ↩

  17. Kollmeyer, Barbara (September 9, 2019), "J.P. Morgan made a 'Volfefe' index to track how Trump tweets move the bond market — here's what it shows", MarketWatch, retrieved September 10, 2019 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/are-trump-tweets-influencing-bond-volatility-jp-morgans-volfefe-index-aims-to-find-out-2019-09-09 ↩

  18. Ashworth, Louis (September 10, 2019), "The Volfefe Index aims to track just how Donald Trump's tweets move markets", The Daily Telegraph, retrieved September 10, 2019 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/09/10/volfefe-index-aims-track-just-donald-trumps-tweets-move-markets/ ↩

  19. Chau, David (September 10, 2019), "Donald Trump's impact on market volatility tracked by new JP Morgan 'Volfefe' index", ABC News Online, retrieved September 10, 2019 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-10/trump-volfefe-index/11495726 ↩

  20. Newburger, Emma (September 8, 2019), "JP Morgan has created an index to track the effect of Trump's tweets on financial markets: 'Volfefe index'", CNBC, retrieved September 10, 2019 2="How much do Trump tweets swing the market? Check 'Volfefe'", Yahoo! Finance, Associated Press, September 9, 2019, retrieved September 10, 2019 https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/08/donald-trump-is-tweeting-more-and-its-impacting-the-bond-market.html ↩

  21. Chau, David (September 10, 2019), "Donald Trump's impact on market volatility tracked by new JP Morgan 'Volfefe' index", ABC News Online, retrieved September 10, 2019 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-10/trump-volfefe-index/11495726 ↩

  22. Newburger, Emma (September 8, 2019), "JP Morgan has created an index to track the effect of Trump's tweets on financial markets: 'Volfefe index'", CNBC, retrieved September 10, 2019 2="How much do Trump tweets swing the market? Check 'Volfefe'", Yahoo! Finance, Associated Press, September 9, 2019, retrieved September 10, 2019 https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/08/donald-trump-is-tweeting-more-and-its-impacting-the-bond-market.html ↩

  23. Chau, David (September 10, 2019), "Donald Trump's impact on market volatility tracked by new JP Morgan 'Volfefe' index", ABC News Online, retrieved September 10, 2019 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-10/trump-volfefe-index/11495726 ↩

  24. Newburger, Emma (September 8, 2019), "JP Morgan has created an index to track the effect of Trump's tweets on financial markets: 'Volfefe index'", CNBC, retrieved September 10, 2019 2="How much do Trump tweets swing the market? Check 'Volfefe'", Yahoo! Finance, Associated Press, September 9, 2019, retrieved September 10, 2019 https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/08/donald-trump-is-tweeting-more-and-its-impacting-the-bond-market.html ↩

  25. Alloway, Tracy (September 9, 2019), "JPMorgan Creates 'Volfefe' Index to Track Trump Tweet Impact", Bloomberg News, retrieved September 10, 2019 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-09/jpmorgan-creates-volfefe-index-to-track-trump-tweet-impact ↩

  26. Chau, David (September 10, 2019), "Donald Trump's impact on market volatility tracked by new JP Morgan 'Volfefe' index", ABC News Online, retrieved September 10, 2019 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-10/trump-volfefe-index/11495726 ↩