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Timeline of the far future
Scientific projections regarding the far future

While the far future cannot be known with certainty, fields like astrophysics, which studies planets and stars, and particle physics, which explores matter at the smallest scales, help predict broad future events. Similarly, evolutionary biology, plate tectonics, and sociology examine life, shifting continents, and human societies over time. Timelines starting from 3001 CE cover possible events such as human extinction, Earth’s fate as the Sun becomes a red giant, and the role of proton decay as a potential end to all matter, offering insights into our distant future.

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Earth, the Solar System, and the universe

See also: Formation and evolution of the Solar System and List of future astronomical events

All projections of the future of Earth, the Solar System and the universe must account for the second law of thermodynamics, which states that entropy, or a loss of the energy available to do work, must rise over time.5 Stars will eventually exhaust their supply of hydrogen fuel via fusion and burn out. The Sun will likely expand sufficiently to overwhelm most of the inner planets (Mercury, Venus, and possibly Earth) but not the giant planets, including Jupiter and Saturn. Afterwards, the Sun will be reduced to the size of a white dwarf, and the outer planets and their moons will continue to orbit this diminutive solar remnant. This future situation may be similar to the white dwarf star MOA-2010-BLG-477L and the Jupiter-sized exoplanet orbiting it.678

Long after the death of the Solar System, physicists expect that matter itself will eventually disintegrate under the influence of radioactive decay, as even the most stable materials break apart into subatomic particles.9 Current data suggests that the universe has a flat geometry (or very close to flat) and will therefore not collapse in on itself after a finite time.10 This infinite future could allow for the occurrence of massively improbable events, such as the formation of Boltzmann brains.11

Keys

Astronomy and astrophysics
Geology and planetary science
Biology
Particle physics
Mathematics
Technology and culture
Years from nowEvent
1,000Due to the lunar tides decelerating the Earth's rotation, the average length of a solar day will be 1⁄30 of an SI second longer than it is today. To compensate, either a leap second will have to be added to the end of a day multiple times during each month, or one or more consecutive leap seconds will have to be added at the end of some or all months.12
1,100As Earth's poles precess, Gamma Cephei replaces Polaris as the northern pole star.13
5,000As one of the long-term effects of global warming, the Greenland ice sheet will have completely melted.1415
10,000If a failure of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin "ice plug" in the next few centuries were to endanger the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, it would take up to this long to melt completely. Sea levels would rise 3 to 4 metres.16 One of the potential long-term effects of global warming, this is separate from the shorter-term threat to the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.
10,000If humans were extinct, Earth would be midway through a stable warm period with the next glacial period of the Quaternary glaciation due in 10,000 years, but if humans survived and did impact their planet, the greenhouse gas emissions would disrupt this natural cycle.17 According to research, the carbon dioxide released from burning fossil fuels could cause the planet to skip glacial periods repeatedly for at least the next 500,000 years.18
10,000 – 1 million19The red supergiant stars Betelgeuse and Antares will likely have exploded as supernovae. For a few months, the explosions should be easily visible on Earth in daylight.2021222324
11,700As Earth's poles precess, Vega, the fifth-brightest star in the sky, becomes the northern pole star.25 Although Earth cycles through many different naked-eye northern pole stars, Vega is the brightest.
11,000–15,000By this point, halfway through Earth's precessional cycle, Earth's axial tilt will be mirrored, causing summer and winter to occur on opposite sides of Earth's orbit. This means that the seasons in the Southern Hemisphere will be less extreme than they are today, as it will face away from the Sun at Earth's perihelion and towards the Sun at aphelion; the seasons in the Northern Hemisphere will be more extreme, as it experiences more pronounced seasonal variation because of a higher percentage of land.26
15,000The oscillating tilt of Earth's poles will have moved the North African Monsoon far enough north to change the climate of the Sahara back into a tropical one such as it had 5,000–10,000 years ago.2728
17,00029The best-guess recurrence rate for a "civilization-threatening" supervolcanic eruption large enough to eject one teratonne (one trillion tonnes) of pyroclastic material.3031
25,000The northern polar ice cap of Mars could recede as the planet reaches a warming peak of its northern hemisphere during the c. 50,000-year perihelion precession aspect of its Milankovitch cycle.3233
36,000The small red dwarf Ross 248 will pass within 3.024 light-years of Earth, becoming the closest star to the Sun.34 It will recede after about 8,000 years, making first Alpha Centauri (again) and then Gliese 445 the nearest stars35 (see timeline).
50,000According to Berger and Loutre, the current interglacial period will end,36 sending the Earth back into a glacial period of the Quaternary glaciation, regardless of the effects of anthropogenic global warming.

However, according to more recent studies in 2016, anthropogenic climate change, if left unchecked, may delay this otherwise expected glacial period by as much as an additional 50,000 years, potentially skipping it entirely.37

Niagara Falls will have eroded the remaining 32 km to Lake Erie and will therefore cease to exist.38

The many glacial lakes of the Canadian Shield will have been erased by post-glacial rebound and erosion.39

50,000Due to lunar tides decelerating the Earth's rotation, a day on Earth is expected to be one SI second longer than it is today. To compensate, either a leap second will have to be added to the end of every day, or the length of the day will have to be officially lengthened by one SI second.40
60,000It is possible that the current cooling trend might be interrupted by an interstadial phase (a warmer period), with the next glacial maximum of the Quaternary glaciation reached only in about 100 kyr AP.41
100,000The proper motion of stars across the celestial sphere, which results from their movement through the Milky Way, renders many of the constellations unrecognizable.42
100,00043The red hypergiant star VY Canis Majoris will likely have exploded in a supernova.44
100,000Native North American earthworms, such as Megascolecidae, will have naturally spread north through the United States Upper Midwest to the Canada–US border, recovering from the Laurentide ice sheet glaciation (38°N to 49°N), assuming a migration rate of 10 metres per year, and that a possible renewed glaciation by this time has not prevented this.45 (However, humans have already introduced non-native invasive earthworms of North America on a much shorter timescale, causing a shock to the regional ecosystem.)
100,000 – 10 million46Cupid and Belinda, moons of Uranus, will likely have collided.47
100,00048Earth will likely have undergone a supervolcanic eruption large enough to erupt 400 km3 (96 cubic miles) of magma.49
100,000According to Berger and Loutre, the next glacial maximum of the Quaternary glaciation is expected to be the most intense, regardless of the effects of anthropogenic global warming.50
> 100,000As one of the long-term effects of global warming, ten percent of anthropogenic carbon dioxide will still remain in a stabilized atmosphere.51
250,000Kamaʻehuakanaloa (formerly Lōʻihi), the youngest volcano in the Hawaiian–Emperor seamount chain, will rise above the surface of the ocean and become a new volcanic island.52
c. 300,00053At some point in the next few hundred thousand years, the Wolf–Rayet star WR 104 may explode in a supernova. There is a small chance that WR 104 is spinning fast enough to produce a gamma-ray burst (GRB), and an even smaller chance that such a GRB could pose a threat to life on Earth.5455
500,00056Earth will likely have been hit by an asteroid of roughly 1 km in diameter, assuming that it is not averted.57
500,000The rugged terrain of Badlands National Park in South Dakota will have eroded completely.58
600,00059The estimated time for the third super-eruption of the Toba supervolcano by this date. The first super-eruption occurred around 840,000 years ago, after 1.4 million years of magma input, whereas magma fed the second super-eruption at 75,000 years.6061
1 millionMeteor Crater, a large impact crater in Arizona considered the "freshest" of its kind, will have worn away.62
1 million63Desdemona and Cressida, moons of Uranus, will likely have collided.64

The stellar system Eta Carinae will likely have exploded in a supernova.65

1 million66Earth will likely have undergone a supervolcanic eruption large enough to erupt 3,200 km3 (770 cubic miles) of magma, an event comparable to the Toba supereruption 75,000 years ago.67
1.29 ± 0.04 millionThe star Gliese 710 will pass as close as 0.051 parsecs (0.1663 light-years; 10,520 astronomical units)68 to the Sun before moving away. This will gravitationally perturb members of the Oort cloud, a halo of icy bodies orbiting at the edge of the Solar System, thereafter raising the likelihood of a cometary impact in the inner Solar System.69
2 millionThe estimated time for the full recovery of coral reef ecosystems from human-caused ocean acidification if such acidification goes unchecked; the recovery of marine ecosystems after the acidification event that occurred about 65 million years ago took a similar length of time.70
2 million+The Grand Canyon will erode further, deepening slightly, but principally widening into a broad valley surrounding the Colorado River.71
2.7 millionThe average orbital half-life of current centaurs, which are unstable because of gravitational interactions with the several outer planets.72 See predictions for notable centaurs.
3 millionDue to tidal deceleration gradually slowing Earth's rotation, a day on Earth is expected to be one minute longer than it is today. To compensate, either a "leap minute" will have to be added to the end of every day, or the length of the day will have to be officially lengthened by one SI minute.73
6 millionEstimated time for comet C/1999 F1 (Catalina), one of the longest-period comets known to return to the inner Solar System, after having travelled in its orbit out to its aphelion 66,600 AU (1.053 light-years) from the Sun and back.74
10 millionThe Red Sea will flood the widening East African Rift valley, causing a new ocean basin to divide the continent of Africa75 and the African plate into the newly formed Nubian plate and the Somali plate.

The Indian plate will advance into Tibet by 180 km (110 mi). Nepali territory, whose boundaries are defined by the Himalayan peaks and the plains of India, will cease to exist.76

10 millionThe estimated time for the full recovery of biodiversity after a potential Holocene extinction, if it were on the scale of the five previous major extinction events.77

Even without a mass extinction, by this time most current species will have disappeared through the background extinction rate, with many clades gradually evolving into new forms.7879

15 millionAn estimated 694 stars will approach the Solar System to less than 5 parsecs. Of these, 26 have a good probability to come within 1.0 parsec (3.3 light-years) and 7 within 0.5 parsecs (1.6 light-years).80
20 millionThe Strait of Gibraltar will have closed due to subduction and a Ring of Fire will form in the Atlantic, similar to that in the Pacific.8182
30 million83Earth will likely have been hit by an asteroid of roughly 5 km in diameter, assuming that it is not averted.84
50 millionThe maximum estimated time before the moon Phobos collides with Mars.85
50 millionAccording to Christopher Scotese, the movement of the San Andreas Fault will cause the Gulf of California to flood into the California Central Valley. This will form a new inland sea on the West Coast of North America, causing the current locations of Los Angeles and San Francisco in California to merge.86 The Californian coast will begin to be subducted into the Aleutian Trench.87

Africa's collision with Eurasia will close the Mediterranean basin and create a mountain range similar to the Himalayas.88

The Appalachian Mountains peaks will have largely worn away,89 weathering at 5.7 Bubnoff units, although topography will actually rise as regional valleys deepen at twice this rate.90

50–60 millionThe Canadian Rockies will have worn away to a plain, assuming a rate of 60 Bubnoff units.91 The Southern Rockies in the United States are eroding at a somewhat slower rate.92
50–400 millionThe estimated time for Earth to naturally replenish its fossil fuel reserves.93
80 millionThe Big Island will have become the last of the current Hawaiian Islands to sink beneath the surface of the ocean, while a more recently formed chain of "new Hawaiian Islands" will then have emerged in their place.94
100 million95Earth will likely have been hit by an asteroid comparable in size to the one that triggered the K–Pg extinction 66 million years ago, assuming this is not averted.96
100 millionAccording to the Pangaea Proxima model created by Christopher R. Scotese, a new subduction zone will open in the Atlantic Ocean, and the Americas will begin to converge back toward Africa.97

Upper estimate for the lifespan of Saturn's rings in their current state.98

110 millionThe Sun's luminosity will have increased by one percent.99
125 millionAccording to the Pangaea Proxima model created by Christopher R. Scotese, the Atlantic Ocean is predicted to stop widening and begin to shrink as the Mid-Atlantic Ridge seafloor spreading gives way to subduction. In this scenario, the mid-ocean ridge between South America and Africa will probably be subducted first; the Atlantic Ocean is predicted to narrow as a result of subduction beneath the Americas. The Indian Ocean is also predicted to be smaller due to northward subduction of oceanic crust into the Central Indian trench. Antarctica is expected to split in two and shift northwards, colliding with Madagascar and Australia, enclosing a remnant of the Indian Ocean, which Scotese calls the "Medi-Pangaean Sea".100101
180 millionDue to the gradual slowing of Earth's rotation, a day on Earth will be one hour longer than it is today. To compensate, either a "leap hour" will have to be added to the end of every day, or the length of the day will have to be officially lengthened by one SI hour.102
230 millionPrediction of the orbits of the Solar System's planets is impossible over timespans greater than this, due to the limitations of Lyapunov time.103
240 millionFrom its present position, the Solar System completes one full orbit of the Galactic Center.104
250 millionAccording to Christopher R. Scotese, due to the northward movement of the West Coast of North America, the coast of California will collide with Alaska.105
250–350 millionAll the continents on Earth may fuse into a supercontinent.106107 Four potential arrangements of this configuration have been dubbed Amasia, Novopangaea, Pangaea Proxima and Aurica. This will likely result in a glacial period, lowering sea levels and increasing oxygen levels, further lowering global temperatures.108109
> 250 millionThe supercontinent's formation, thanks to a combination of continentality increasing distance from the ocean, an increase in volcanic activity resulting in atmospheric CO2 at double current levels, increased interspecific competition, and a 2.5 percent increase in solar flux, is likely to trigger an extinction event comparable to the Great Dying 250 million years ago. Mammals in particular are unlikely to survive, assuming they still exist in their current forms by this point.110111
300 millionDue to a shift in the equatorial Hadley cells to roughly 40° north and south, the amount of arid land will increase by 25%.112
300–600 millionThe estimated time for Venus's mantle temperature to reach its maximum. Then, over a period of about 100 million years, major subduction occurs and the crust is recycled.113
350 millionAccording to the extroversion model first developed by Paul F. Hoffman, subduction ceases in the Pacific Ocean basin.114115
400–500 millionThe supercontinent (Pangaea Proxima, Novopangaea, Amasia, or Aurica) will likely have rifted apart.116 This will likely result in higher global temperatures, similar to the Cretaceous period.117
500 million118The estimated time until a gamma-ray burst, or massive, hyperenergetic supernova, occurs within 6,500 light-years of Earth; close enough for its rays to affect Earth's ozone layer and potentially trigger a mass extinction, assuming the hypothesis is correct that a previous such explosion triggered the Ordovician–Silurian extinction event. However, the supernova would have to be precisely oriented relative to Earth to have such effect.119
600 millionTidal acceleration moves the Moon far enough from Earth that total solar eclipses are no longer possible.120
500–600 millionThe Sun's increasing luminosity begins to disrupt the carbonate–silicate cycle; higher luminosity increases weathering of surface rocks, which traps carbon dioxide in the ground as carbonate. As water evaporates from the Earth's surface, rocks harden, causing plate tectonics to slow and eventually stop once the oceans evaporate completely. With less volcanism to recycle carbon into the Earth's atmosphere, carbon dioxide levels begin to fall.121 By this time, carbon dioxide levels will fall to the point at which C3 photosynthesis is no longer possible. All plants that use C3 photosynthesis (roughly 99 percent of present-day species) will die.122 The extinction of C3 plant life is likely to be a long-term decline rather than a sharp drop. It is likely that plant groups will die one by one well before the critical carbon dioxide level is reached. The first plants to disappear will be C3 herbaceous plants, followed by deciduous forests, evergreen broad-leaf forests, and finally evergreen conifers.123

However, A 2024 paper by RJ Graham et al. argues that silicate weathering is far less temperature-dependent than initially thought, and that falling carbon dioxide levels are unlikely to lead to the death of life on Earth.124

500–800 millionAs Earth begins to warm and carbon dioxide levels fall, plants—and, by extension, animals—could survive longer by evolving other strategies such as requiring less carbon dioxide for photosynthetic processes, becoming carnivorous, adapting to desiccation, or associating with fungi. These adaptations are likely to appear near the beginning of the moist greenhouse.125 The decrease in plant life will result in less oxygen in the atmosphere, allowing for more DNA-damaging ultraviolet radiation to reach the surface. The rising temperatures will increase chemical reactions in the atmosphere, further lowering oxygen levels. Plant and animal communities become increasingly sparse and isolated as the Earth becomes more barren. Flying animals would be better off because of their ability to travel large distances looking for cooler temperatures.126 Many animals may be driven to the poles or possibly underground. These creatures would become active during the polar night and aestivate during the polar day due to the intense heat and radiation. Much of the land would become a barren desert, and plants and animals would primarily be found in the oceans.127
500–800 millionAs pointed out by Peter Ward and Donald Brownlee in their book The Life and Death of Planet Earth, according to NASA Ames scientist Kevin Zahnle, this is the earliest time for plate tectonics to eventually stop, due to the gradual cooling of the Earth's core, which could potentially turn the Earth back into a water world. This would, in turn, likely cause the extinction of Earth's remaining land life.128
800–900 millionCarbon dioxide levels will fall to the point at which C4 photosynthesis is no longer possible.129 Without plant life to recycle oxygen in the atmosphere, free oxygen and the ozone layer will disappear from the atmosphere allowing for intense levels of deadly UV light to reach the surface. Animals in food chains that were dependent on live plants will disappear shortly afterward.130 At most, animal life could survive about 3 to 100 million years after plant life dies out. Just like plants, the extinction of animals will likely coincide with the loss of plants. It will start with large animals, then smaller animals and flying creatures, then amphibians, followed by reptiles and, finally, invertebrates.131 In the book The Life and Death of Planet Earth, authors Peter D. Ward and Donald Brownlee state that some animal life may be able to survive in the oceans. Eventually, however, all multicellular life will die out.132 The first sea animals to go extinct will be large fish, followed by small fish and then, finally, invertebrates.133 The last animals to go extinct will be animals that do not depend on living plants, such as termites, or those near hydrothermal vents, such as worms of the genus Riftia.134 The only life left on the Earth after this will be single-celled organisms.
1 billion13527% of the ocean's mass will have been subducted into the mantle. If this were to continue uninterrupted, it would reach an equilibrium where 65% of present-day surface water would be subducted.136
1 billionBy this point, the Sagittarius Dwarf Spheroidal Galaxy will have been completely consumed by the Milky Way.137
1.1 billionThe Sun's luminosity will have increased by 10%, causing Earth's surface temperatures to reach an average of around 320 K (47 °C; 116 °F). The atmosphere will become a "moist greenhouse", resulting in a runaway evaporation of the oceans.138139 This would cause plate tectonics to stop completely, if not already stopped before this time.140 Pockets of water may still be present at the poles, allowing abodes for simple life.141142
1.2 billionHigh estimate until all plant life dies out, assuming some form of photosynthesis is possible despite extremely low carbon dioxide levels. If this is possible, rising temperatures will make any animal life unsustainable from this point on.143144145
1.3 billionEukaryotic life dies out on Earth due to carbon dioxide starvation. Only prokaryotes remain.146
1.5 billionCallisto is captured into the mean-motion resonance of the other Galilean moons of Jupiter, completing the 1:2:4:8 chain. (Currently only Io, Europa and Ganymede participate in the 1:2:4 resonance.)147
1.5–1.6 billionThe Sun's rising luminosity causes its circumstellar habitable zone to move outwards; as carbon dioxide rises in Mars's atmosphere, its surface temperature increases to levels akin to Earth during the ice age.148149
1.5–4.5 billionTidal acceleration moves the Moon far enough from the Earth to the point where it can no longer stabilize Earth's axial tilt. As a consequence, Earth's true polar wander becomes chaotic and extreme, leading to dramatic shifts in the planet's climate due to the changing axial tilt.150
1.6 billionLower estimate until all remaining life, which by now had been reduced to colonies of unicellular organisms in isolated microenvironments such as high-altitude lakes and caves, goes extinct.151152153
< 2 billionThe first close passage of the Andromeda Galaxy and the Milky Way.154
2 billionHigh estimate until the Earth's oceans evaporate if the atmospheric pressure were to decrease via the nitrogen cycle.155
2.55 billionThe Sun will have reached a maximum surface temperature of 5,820 K (5,550 °C; 10,020 °F). From then on, it will become gradually cooler while its luminosity will continue to increase.156
2.8 billionEarth's surface temperature will reach around 420 K (147 °C; 296 °F), even at the poles.157158
2.8 billionHigh estimate until all remaining Earth life goes extinct.159160
3–4 billionThe Earth's core freezes if the inner core continues to grow in size, based on its current growth rate of 1 mm (0.039 in) in diameter per year.161162163 Without its liquid outer core, Earth's magnetosphere shuts down,164 and solar winds gradually deplete the atmosphere.165
c. 3 billion166There is a roughly 1-in-100,000 chance that the Earth will be ejected into interstellar space by a stellar encounter before this point, and a 1-in-300-billion chance that it will be both ejected into space and captured by another star around this point. If this were to happen, any remaining life on Earth could potentially survive for far longer if it survived the interstellar journey.167
3.3 billion168There is a roughly one percent chance that Jupiter's gravity may make Mercury's orbit so eccentric as to cross Venus's orbit by this time, sending the inner Solar System into chaos. Other possible scenarios include Mercury colliding with the Sun, being ejected from the Solar System, or colliding with Venus or Earth.169170
3.5–4.5 billionThe Sun's luminosity will have increased by 35–40%, causing all water currently present in lakes and oceans to evaporate, if it had not done so earlier. The greenhouse effect caused by the massive, water-rich atmosphere will result in Earth's surface temperature rising to 1,400 K (1,130 °C; 2,060 °F), which is hot enough to melt some surface rock.171172173174
3.6 billionNeptune's moon Triton falls through the planet's Roche limit, potentially disintegrating into a planetary ring system similar to Saturn's.175
4.32 billionDue to the gradual slowing of Earth's rotation, a day on Earth will be twice as long as it is today. To compensate, either a "leap day" will have to be added to the end of every day, or the length of the day will have to be officially lengthened by one day.176
4.5 billionMars reaches the same solar flux as that of the Earth when it first formed 4.5 billion years ago from today.177
< 5 billionThe Andromeda Galaxy will have fully merged with the Milky Way, forming an elliptical galaxy dubbed "Milkomeda".178 There is also a small chance of the Solar System being ejected.179180 The planets of the Solar System will almost certainly not be disturbed by these events.181182183
5.4 billionThe Sun, having now exhausted its hydrogen supply, leaves the main sequence and begins evolving into a red giant.184
6.5 billionMars reaches the same solar radiation flux as Earth today, after which it will suffer a similar fate to the Earth as described above.185
6.6 billionThe Sun may experience a helium flash, resulting in its core becoming as bright as the combined luminosity of all the stars in the Milky Way galaxy.186
7.5 billionEarth and Mars may become tidally locked with the expanding red giant Sun.187
7.59 billionThe Earth and Moon are very likely destroyed by falling into the Sun, just before the Sun reaches the top of its red giant phase.188189 Before the final collision, the Moon possibly spirals below Earth's Roche limit, breaking into a ring of debris, most of which falls to the Earth's surface.190

During this era, Saturn's moon Titan, if not already ejected from the Saturnian system, may reach surface temperatures necessary to support life and would orbit further out from Saturn.191

7.9 billionThe Sun reaches the top of the red-giant branch of the Hertzsprung–Russell diagram, achieving its maximum radius of 256 times the present-day value.192 In the process, Mercury, Venus and Earth are likely destroyed.193
8 billionThe Sun becomes a carbon–oxygen white dwarf with about 54.05% of its present mass.194195196197 At this point, if the Earth survives, temperatures on the surface of the planet, as well as the other planets in the Solar System, will begin dropping rapidly, due to the white dwarf Sun emitting much less energy than it does today.
>22.3 billion22.3 billion years is the estimated time until the end of the universe in a Big Rip, assuming a model of dark energy with w = −1.5.198199 If the density of dark energy is less than −1, then the universe's expansion will continue to accelerate and the observable universe will grow ever sparser. Around 200 million years before the Big Rip, galaxy clusters like the Local Group or the Sculptor Group will be destroyed; 60 million years before the Big Rip, all galaxies will begin to lose stars around their edges and will completely disintegrate in another 40 million years; three months before the Big Rip, star systems will become gravitationally unbound, and planets will fly off into the rapidly expanding universe; thirty minutes before the Big Rip, planets, stars, asteroids and even extreme objects like neutron stars and black holes will evaporate into atoms; one hundred zeptoseconds (10−19 seconds) before the Big Rip, atoms will break apart. Ultimately, once the Rip reaches the Planck scale, cosmic strings would be disintegrated as well as the fabric of spacetime itself. The universe would enter into a "rip singularity" when all non-zero distances become infinitely large. Whereas a "crunch singularity" involves all matter being infinitely concentrated, in a "rip singularity", all matter is infinitely spread out.200

Observations of galaxy cluster speeds by the Chandra X-ray Observatory suggest that the value of w is c. −0.991, meaning the Big Rip is unlikely to occur.201 Meanwhile, more recent data (2018) from the Planck mission indicates the value of w to be c. −1.028 (±0.031), pushing the earliest possible time of the Big Rip to approximately 200 billion years into the future.202

50 billionIf the Earth and Moon are not engulfed by the Sun, by this time they will become tidally locked, with each showing only one face to the other.203204 Thereafter, the tidal action of the white dwarf Sun will extract angular momentum from the system, causing the lunar orbit to decay and the Earth's spin to accelerate.205
65 billionThe Moon may collide with the Earth or be torn apart to form an orbital ring due to the decay of its orbit, assuming the Earth and Moon have not already been destroyed.206
100 billion – 1 trillionAll the ≈47 galaxies207 of the Local Group will coalesce into a single large galaxy—an expanded "Milkomeda"/"Milkdromeda"; the last galaxies of the Local Group coalescing will mark the effective completion of its evolution.208
100–150 billionThe universe's expansion causes all galaxies beyond the former Local Group to disappear beyond the cosmic light horizon, removing them from the observable universe.209210
150 billionThe universe will have expanded by a factor of 6,000, and the cosmic microwave background will have cooled by the same factor to around 4.5×10−4 K. The temperature of the background will continue to cool in proportion to the expansion of the universe.211
325 billionThe estimated time by which the expansion of the universe will have isolated all gravitationally bound structures within their own cosmological horizon. At this point, the universe will have expanded by a factor of more than 100 million from today, and even individual exiled stars will be isolated.212
800 billionThe expected time when the net light emission from the combined "Milkomeda" galaxy begins to decline as the red dwarf stars pass through their blue dwarf stage of peak luminosity.213
1 trillionA low estimate for the time until star formation ends in galaxies as galaxies are depleted of the gas clouds they need to form stars.214

The universe's expansion, assuming a constant dark energy density, multiplies the wavelength of the cosmic microwave background by 1029, exceeding the scale of the cosmic light horizon and rendering its evidence of the Big Bang undetectable. However, it may still be possible to determine the expansion of the universe through the study of hypervelocity stars.215

1.05 trillionThe estimated time by which the universe will have expanded by a factor of more than 1026, reducing the average particle density to less than one particle per cosmological horizon volume. Beyond this point, particles of unbound intergalactic matter are effectively isolated, and collisions between them cease to affect the future evolution of the universe.216
1.4 trillionThe estimated time by which the cosmic background radiation cools to a floor temperature of 10−30 K and does not decline further. This residual temperature comes from horizon radiation, which does not decline over time.217
2 trillionThe estimated time by which all objects beyond our former Local Group are redshifted by a factor of more than 1053. Even gamma rays that they emit are stretched so that their wavelengths are greater than the physical diameter of the horizon. The resolution time for such radiation will exceed the physical age of the universe.218
4 trillionThe estimated time until the red dwarf star Proxima Centauri, the closest star to the Sun today, at a distance of 4.25 light-years, leaves the main sequence and becomes a white dwarf.219
10 trillionThe estimated time of peak habitability in the universe, unless habitability around low-mass stars is suppressed.220
12 trillionThe estimated time until the red dwarf star VB 10—as of 2016, the least-massive main-sequence star with an estimated mass of 0.075 M☉—runs out of hydrogen in its core and becomes a white dwarf.221222
30 trillionThe estimated time for stars (including the Sun) to undergo a close encounter with another star in local stellar neighborhoods. Whenever two stars (or stellar remnants) pass close to each other, their planets' orbits can be disrupted, potentially ejecting them from the system entirely. On average, the closer a planet's orbit to its parent star the longer it takes to be ejected in this manner, because it is gravitationally more tightly bound to the star.223
100 trillionA high estimate for the time by which normal star formation ends in galaxies.224 This marks the transition from the Stelliferous Era to the Degenerate Era; with too little free hydrogen to form new stars, all remaining stars slowly exhaust their fuel and die.225 By this time, the universe will have expanded by a factor of approximately 102554.226
110–120 trillionThe time by which all stars in the universe will have exhausted their fuel (the longest-lived stars, low-mass red dwarfs, have lifespans of roughly 10–20 trillion years).227 After this point, the stellar-mass objects remaining are stellar remnants (white dwarfs, neutron stars, black holes) and brown dwarfs.

Collisions between brown dwarfs will create new red dwarfs on a marginal level: on average, about 100 stars will shine in what was once "Milkomeda". Collisions between stellar remnants will create occasional supernovae.228

1015 (1 quadrillion)The estimated time until stellar close encounters detach all planets in star systems (including the Solar System) from their orbits.229

By this point, the black dwarf that was once the Sun will have cooled to 5 K (−268.15 °C; −450.67 °F).230

1019 to 1020(10–100 quintillion)The estimated time until 90–99% of brown dwarfs and stellar remnants (including the Sun) are ejected from galaxies. When two objects pass close enough to each other, they exchange orbital energy, with lower-mass objects tending to gain energy. Through repeated encounters, the lower-mass objects can gain enough energy in this manner to be ejected from their galaxy. This process eventually causes "Milkomeda"/"Milkdromeda" to eject the majority of its brown dwarfs and stellar remnants.231232
1020 (100 quintillion)The estimated time until the Earth collides with the black dwarf Sun due to the decay of its orbit via emission of gravitational radiation,233 if the Earth is not ejected from its orbit by a stellar encounter or engulfed by the Sun during its red giant phase.234
1023 (100 sextillion)Around this timescale most stellar remnants and other objects are ejected from the remains of their galactic cluster.235
1030 (1 nonillion)The estimated time until most or all of the remaining 1–10% of stellar remnants not ejected from galaxies fall into their galaxies' central supermassive black holes. By this point, with binary stars having fallen into each other, and planets into their stars, via emission of gravitational radiation, only solitary objects (stellar remnants, brown dwarfs, ejected planetary-mass objects, black holes) will remain in the universe.236
2×1036 (2 undecillion)The estimated time for all nucleons in the observable universe to decay, if the hypothesized proton half-life takes its smallest possible value (8.2 × 1033 years).237238
1036–1038 (1–100 undecillion)The estimated time for all remaining planets and stellar-mass objects, including the Sun, to disintegrate if proton decay can occur.239
3×1043 (30 tredecillion)The estimated time for all nucleons in the observable universe to decay, if the hypothesized proton half-life takes the largest possible value of 1041 years,240 assuming that the Big Bang was inflationary and that the same process that made baryons predominate over anti-baryons in the early universe makes protons decay. By this time, if protons do decay, the Black Hole Era, in which black holes are the only remaining celestial objects, begins.241242
3.14×1050 (314 quindecillion)The estimated time until a micro black hole of one Earth mass today will have decayed into subatomic particles by the emission of Hawking radiation.243
1065 (100 vigintillion)Assuming that protons do not decay, the estimated time for rigid objects, from free-floating rocks in space to planets, to rearrange their atoms and molecules via quantum tunnelling. On this timescale, any discrete body of matter "behaves like a liquid" and becomes a smooth sphere due to diffusion and gravity.244
1.16×1067 (11.6 unvigintillion)The estimated time until a black hole of one solar mass today will have decayed by the emission of Hawking radiation.245
1.54×1091–1.41×1092 (15.4–141 novemvigintillion)The estimated time until the resulting supermassive black hole of "Milkomeda"/"Milkdromeda" from the merger of Sagittarius A* and the P2 concentration during the collision of the Milky Way and Andromeda galaxies246 will have vanished by the emission of Hawking radiation,247 assuming it does not accrete any additional matter nor merge with other black holes—though it is most likely that this supermassive black hole will nonetheless merge with other supermassive black holes during the gravitational collapse towards "Milkomeda"/"Milkdromeda" of other Local Group galaxies.248 This supermassive black hole might be the very last entity from the former Local Group to disappear—and the last evidence of its existence.
10106 – 2.1×10109The estimated time until ultramassive black holes of 1014 (100 trillion) solar masses, predicted to form during the gravitational collapse of galaxy superclusters,249 decay by Hawking radiation.250 This marks the end of the Black Hole Era. Beyond this time, if protons do decay, the universe enters the Dark Era, in which all physical objects have decayed to subatomic particles, gradually winding down to their final energy state in the heat death of the universe.251252
10161A 2018 estimate of Standard Model lifetime before collapse of a false vacuum; 95% confidence interval is 1065 to 101383 years due in part to uncertainty about the top quark's mass.253254
10200The highest estimate for the time it would take for all nucleons in the observable universe to decay, provided they do not decay via the above process but instead through any one of many different mechanisms allowed in modern particle physics (higher-order baryon non-conservation processes, virtual black holes, sphalerons, etc.) on timescales of 1046 to 10200 years.255
101100–32000The estimated time for black dwarfs of 1.2 solar masses or more to undergo supernovae as a result of slow silicon–nickel–iron fusion, as the declining electron fraction lowers their Chandrasekhar limit, assuming protons do not decay.256
101500Assuming that protons do not decay, the estimated time until all baryonic matter in stellar remnants, planets and planetary-mass objects will have either fused together via muon-catalyzed fusion to form iron-56 or decayed from a higher mass element into iron-56 to form iron stars.257
10 10 26 {\displaystyle 10^{10^{26}}} 258259A low estimate for the time until all iron stars collapse via quantum tunnelling into black holes, assuming no proton decay or virtual black holes, and that Planck-scale black holes can exist.260

On this vast timescale, even ultra-stable iron stars will have been destroyed by quantum-tunnelling events. At this lower end of the timescale, iron stars decay directly to black holes, as this decay mode is much more favourable than decaying into a neutron star (which has an expected timescale of 10 10 76 {\displaystyle 10^{10^{76}}} years)261 and later decaying into a black hole. On these timescales, the subsequent evaporation of each resulting black hole into subatomic particles (a process lasting roughly 10100 years) and the subsequent shift to the Dark Era is instantaneous.

10 10 50 {\displaystyle 10^{10^{50}}} 262263264The estimated time for a Boltzmann brain to appear in the vacuum via a spontaneous entropy decrease.265
10 10 76 {\displaystyle 10^{10^{76}}} 266Highest estimate for the time until all iron stars collapse via quantum tunnelling into neutron stars or black holes, assuming no proton decay or virtual black holes, and that black holes below the Chandrasekhar mass cannot form directly.267 On these timescales, neutron stars above the Chandrasekhar mass rapidly collapse into black holes, and black holes formed by these processes instantly evaporate into subatomic particles.

This is also the highest estimated possible time for the Black Hole Era (and subsequent Dark Era) to commence. Beyond this point, it is almost certain that the universe will be an almost pure vacuum, gradually winding down its energy level until it reaches its final energy state, assuming it does not happen before this time.

10 10 120 {\displaystyle 10^{10^{120}}} 268The highest estimate for the time it takes for the universe to reach its final energy state.269
10 10 10 56 {\displaystyle 10^{10^{10^{56}}}} 270271Around this vast timeframe, quantum tunnelling in any isolated patch of the universe could generate new inflationary events, resulting in new Big Bangs giving birth to new universes.272

(Because the total number of ways in which all the subatomic particles in the observable universe can be combined is 10 10 115 {\displaystyle 10^{10^{115}}} ,273274 a number which, when multiplied by 10 10 10 56 {\displaystyle 10^{10^{10^{56}}}} , is approximately 10 10 10 56 {\displaystyle 10^{10^{10^{56}}}} , this is also the time required for a quantum-tunnelled and quantum fluctuation-generated Big Bang to produce a new universe identical to our own, assuming that every new universe contained at least the same number of subatomic particles and obeyed laws of physics within the landscape predicted by string theory.)275276

Humanity and human constructs

Keys

Astronomy and astrophysics
Geology and planetary science
Biology
Particle physics
Mathematics
Technology and culture

To date, five spacecraft (Voyager 1, Voyager 2, Pioneer 10, Pioneer 11 and New Horizons) are on trajectories that will take them out of the Solar System and into interstellar space. Barring an extremely unlikely collision with some object, all five should persist indefinitely.277

Date (CE) or years from nowEvent
3183 CEThe Zeitpyramide (time pyramid), a public art work started in 1993 at Wemding, Germany, is scheduled for completion.278
4017 CEMaximum lifespan of the data films in Arctic World Archive, a repository that contains code of open-source projects on GitHub along with other data of historical interest (if stored in optimum conditions).279
5207 CEAccording to Michio Kaku, the time by which humanity will be a Type II civilization, capable of harnessing all the energy of its host star.280
10,000The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant for nuclear weapons waste is planned to be protected until this time, with a "Permanent Marker" system designed to warn off visitors through multiple languages (the six UN languages and Navajo) and pictograms.281 The Human Interference Task Force has provided the theoretical basis for United States plans for future nuclear semiotics.282
10,000Planned lifespan of the Long Now Foundation's several ongoing projects, including a 10,000-year clock known as the Clock of the Long Now, the Rosetta Project and the Long Bet Project.283

Estimated lifespan of the HD-Rosetta analog disc—an ion beam-etched writing medium on nickel plate, a technology developed at Los Alamos National Laboratory and later commercialized. (The Rosetta Project uses this technology, named after the Rosetta Stone.)

10,000Projected lifespan of Norway's Svalbard Global Seed Vault.284
10,000Most probable estimated lifespan of technological civilization, according to Frank Drake's original formulation of the Drake equation.285
10,000If globalization trends lead to panmixia, human genetic variation will no longer be regionalized, as the effective population size will equal the actual population size.286
20,000According to the glottochronology linguistic model of Morris Swadesh, future languages should retain just one out of every 100 "core vocabulary" words on their Swadesh list compared to that of their current progenitors.287

The Chernobyl exclusion zone is expected to become habitable again.288

24,110Half-life of plutonium-239.289 At this point the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, the 2,600-square-kilometre (1,000 sq mi) area of Ukraine and Belarus left deserted by the 1986 Chernobyl disaster, will return to normal levels of radiation.290
25,000The Arecibo message, a collection of radio data transmitted on 16 November 1974, will reach the distance of its destination: the globular cluster Messier 13.291 This is the only interstellar radio message sent to such a distant region of the galaxy. There will be a 24-light-year shift in the cluster's position in the galaxy during the time taken for the message to reach it, but as the cluster is 168 light-years in diameter, the message will still reach its destination.292 Any reply will take at least another 25,000 years from the time of its transmission.
14 September 30828 CEMaximum system time for 64-bit NTFS-based Windows operating system.293
33,800Pioneer 10 passes within 3.4 light-years of Ross 248.294
42,200Voyager 2 passes within 1.7 light-years of Ross 248.295
44,100Voyager 1 passes within 1.8 light-years of Gliese 445.296
46,600Pioneer 11 passes within 1.9 light-years of Gliese 445.297
50,000Estimated atmospheric lifetime of tetrafluoromethane, the most durable greenhouse gas.298
90,300Pioneer 10 passes within 0.76 light-years of HIP 117795.299
100,000+Time required to terraform Mars with an oxygen-rich breathable atmosphere, using only plants with solar efficiency comparable to the biosphere currently found on Earth.300
100,000–1 millionEstimated time by which humanity will be a Type III civilization, and could colonize the Milky Way galaxy and become capable of harnessing all the energy of the galaxy, assuming a velocity of 10% the speed of light.301
250,000The estimated minimum time at which the spent plutonium stored at New Mexico's Waste Isolation Pilot Plant will cease to be radiologically lethal to humans.302
13 September 275760 CEMaximum system time for the JavaScript programming language.303
492,300Voyager 1 passes within 1.3 light-years of HD 28343.304
1 millionEstimated lifespan of Memory of Mankind (MOM) self storage-style repository in Hallstatt salt mine in Austria, which stores information on inscribed tablets of stoneware.305

Planned lifespan of the Human Document Project being developed at the University of Twente in the Netherlands.306

1 millionCurrent glass objects in the environment will be decomposed.307

Various public monuments composed of hard granite will have eroded by one metre, in a moderate climate and assuming a rate of 1 Bubnoff unit (1 mm in 1,000 years, or ≈1 inch in 25,000 years).308

Without maintenance, the Great Pyramid of Giza will have eroded to the point where it is unrecognizable.309

On the Moon, Neil Armstrong's "one small step" footprint at Tranquility Base will erode by this time, along with those left by all twelve Apollo moonwalkers, due to the accumulated effects of space weathering.310311 (Normal erosion processes active on Earth are not present on the Moon because of its almost complete lack of atmosphere.)

1.2 millionPioneer 11 comes within three light-years of Delta Scuti.312
2 millionPioneer 10 passes near the bright star Aldebaran.313
2 millionVertebrate species separated for this long will generally undergo allopatric speciation.314 Evolutionary biologist James W. Valentine predicted that if humanity has been dispersed among genetically isolated space colonies over this time, the galaxy will host an evolutionary radiation of multiple human species with a "diversity of form and adaptation that would astound us".315 This would be a natural process of isolated populations, unrelated to potential deliberate genetic enhancement technologies.
4 millionPioneer 11 passes near one of the stars in the constellation Aquila.316
5–10 millionDue to gradual degeneration, the Y chromosome will have disappeared.317318
7.2 millionWithout maintenance, Mount Rushmore will have eroded to the point where it is unrecognizable.319
8 millionHumanity has a 95% probability of extinction by this date, according to J. Richard Gott's formulation of the controversial Doomsday argument.320
8 millionMost probable lifespan of the Pioneer 10 plaques before the etching is destroyed by poorly understood interstellar erosion processes.321

The LAGEOS satellites' orbits will decay, and they will re-enter Earth's atmosphere, carrying with them a message to any far future descendants of humanity and a map of the continents as they are expected to appear then.322

100 millionMaximal estimated lifespan of technological civilization, according to Frank Drake's original formulation of the Drake equation.323
100 millionFuture archaeologists should be able to identify an "Urban Stratum" of fossilized great coastal cities, mostly through the remains of underground infrastructure such as building foundations and utility tunnels.324
1 billionEstimated lifespan of "Nanoshuttle memory device" using an iron nanoparticle moved as a molecular switch through a carbon nanotube, a technology developed at the University of California at Berkeley.325
1 billionEstimated lifespan of the two Voyager Golden Records before the information stored on them is rendered unrecoverable.326

Estimated time for an astroengineering project to alter the Earth's orbit, compensating for the Sun's increasing brightness and outward migration of the habitable zone, accomplished by repeated asteroid gravity assists.327328

292277026596 CE (292 billion)Numeric overflow in system time for 64-bit Unix systems.329
1020 (100 quintillion)Estimated timescale for the Pioneer and Voyager spacecrafts to collide with a star (or stellar remnant).330
3×1019 – 3×1021(30 quintillion to 3 sextillion)Estimated lifespan of "Superman memory crystal" data storage using femtosecond laser-etched nanostructures in glass, a technology developed at the University of Southampton, at an ambient temperature of 30 °C (86 °F; 303 K).331332

See also

  • Astronomy portal
  • Stars portal
  • Outer space portal
  • World portal

Notes

Bibliography

References

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  262. This represents the time by which the event will most probably have happened. It may occur randomly at any time from the present. ↩

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  264. 10 10 50 {\displaystyle 10^{10^{50}}} is 1 followed by 1050 (100 quindecillion) zeroes. ↩

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