Some of the reasons for the "Modern Rise of Population" were particularly investigated by the British health scientist Thomas McKeown (1912–1988). In his publications, McKeown challenged four theories about the population growth:
Although the McKeown thesis has been heavily disputed, recent studies have confirmed the value of his ideas. His work is pivotal for present day thinking about population growth, birth control, public health and medical care. McKeown had a major influence on many population researchers, such as health economists and Nobel prize winners Robert W. Fogel (1993) and Angus Deaton (2015). The latter considered McKeown as "the founder of social medicine".
The "population growth rate" is the rate at which the number of individuals in a population increases in a given time period, expressed as a fraction of the initial population. Specifically, population growth rate refers to the change in population over a unit time period, often expressed as a percentage of the number of individuals in the population at the beginning of that period. This can be written as the formula, valid for a sufficiently small time interval:
P
o
p
u
l
a
t
i
o
n
g
r
o
w
t
h
r
a
t
e
=
P
(
t
2
)
−
P
(
t
1
)
P
(
t
1
)
(
t
2
−
t
1
)
{\displaystyle Population\ growth\ rate={\frac {P(t_{2})-P(t_{1})}{P(t_{1})(t_{2}-t_{1})}}}
A positive growth rate indicates that the population is increasing, while a negative growth rate indicates that the population is decreasing. A growth ratio of zero indicates that there were the same number of individuals at the beginning and end of the period—a growth rate may be zero even when there are significant changes in the birth rates, death rates, immigration rates, and age distribution between the two times.
As it is a separable differential equation, the population may be solved explicitly, producing a logistic function:
P
(
t
)
=
K
1
+
A
e
−
r
t
{\displaystyle P(t)={\frac {K}{1+Ae^{-rt}}}}
,
where
A
=
K
−
P
0
P
0
{\displaystyle A={\frac {K-P_{0}}{P_{0}}}}
and
P
0
{\displaystyle P_{0}}
is the initial population at time 0.
The world population growth rate peaked in 1963 at 2.2% per year and subsequently declined. In 2017, the estimated annual growth rate was 1.1%. The CIA World Factbook gives the world annual birthrate, mortality rate, and growth rate as 1.86%, 0.78%, and 1.08% respectively. The last 100 years have seen a massive fourfold increase in the population, due to medical advances, lower mortality rates, and an increase in agricultural productivity made possible by the Green Revolution.
The annual increase in the number of living humans peaked at 88.0 million in 1989, then slowly declined to 73.9 million in 2003, after which it rose again to 75.2 million in 2006. In 2017, the human population increased by 83 million. Generally, developed nations have seen a decline in their growth rates in recent decades, though annual growth rates remain above 2% in some countries of the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa, and also in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Latin America.
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'Modern School Atlas (96th edition)', ISBN 978-1-84907-013-3. /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Oxford economic atlas of the World 4th edition, ISBN 0-19-894107-2 /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Collins Atlas of the World, the 1993 edition, ISBN 0-00-448038-4 /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Collins Longman Student Atlas, the 1996 and in 1998 publications, ISBN 978-0-00-448879-0 for the 1998 edition, ISBN 0-00-448365-0 for the 1996 edition /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
"Population totale par sexe et âge au 1er janvier 2011, France métropolitaine". INSEE (in French). Government of France. Retrieved 20 January 2011. http://www.insee.fr/fr/themes/detail.asp?reg_id=0&ref_id=bilan-demo&page=donnees-detaillees/bilan-demo/pop_age2.htm
'Modern School Atlas (96th edition)', ISBN 978-1-84907-013-3. /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Oxford economic atlas of the World 4th edition, ISBN 0-19-894107-2 /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Collins Atlas of the World, the 1993 edition, ISBN 0-00-448038-4 /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Collins Longman Student Atlas, the 1996 and in 1998 publications, ISBN 978-0-00-448879-0 for the 1998 edition, ISBN 0-00-448365-0 for the 1996 edition /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
"Monthly demographic balance: January–November 2010" (PDF) (in Italian). Istat. 28 March 2011. Archived from the original (PDF) on 22 July 2012. Retrieved 2 April 2011. https://web.archive.org/web/20120722144056/http://www3.istat.it/salastampa/comunicati/non_calendario/20110328_00/testointegrale20110328.pdf
'Modern School Atlas (96th edition)', ISBN 978-1-84907-013-3. /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Oxford economic atlas of the World 4th edition, ISBN 0-19-894107-2 /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Collins Atlas of the World, the 1993 edition, ISBN 0-00-448038-4 /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Collins Longman Student Atlas, the 1996 and in 1998 publications, ISBN 978-0-00-448879-0 for the 1998 edition, ISBN 0-00-448365-0 for the 1996 edition /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
"World Population Prospects, Table A.1" (PDF). United Nations. 2010. Retrieved 12 March 2009.[dead link] https://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2010/wpp2010_text_tables.pdf
'Modern School Atlas (96th edition)', ISBN 978-1-84907-013-3. /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Oxford economic atlas of the World 4th edition, ISBN 0-19-894107-2 /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Collins Atlas of the World, the 1993 edition, ISBN 0-00-448038-4 /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Collins Longman Student Atlas, the 1996 and in 1998 publications, ISBN 978-0-00-448879-0 for the 1998 edition, ISBN 0-00-448365-0 for the 1996 edition /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
'Modern School Atlas (96th edition)', ISBN 978-1-84907-013-3. /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Oxford economic atlas of the World 4th edition, ISBN 0-19-894107-2 /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Collins Atlas of the World, the 1993 edition, ISBN 0-00-448038-4 /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Collins Longman Student Atlas, the 1996 and in 1998 publications, ISBN 978-0-00-448879-0 for the 1998 edition, ISBN 0-00-448365-0 for the 1996 edition /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
Anuario Estadístico de Cuba 2009. Edición 2010 Archived 16 July 2010 at the Wayback Machine, Oficina Nacional de Estadísticas, República de Cuba. Accessed on 6 November, 2010. Note: An exchange rate of 1 CUC to 1.08 USD was used to convert GDP.[1] http://www.one.cu/aec2009/esp/20080618_tabla_cuadro.htm
'Modern School Atlas (96th edition)', ISBN 978-1-84907-013-3. /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Oxford economic atlas of the World 4th edition, ISBN 0-19-894107-2 /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Collins Atlas of the World, the 1993 edition, ISBN 0-00-448038-4 /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Collins Longman Student Atlas, the 1996 and in 1998 publications, ISBN 978-0-00-448879-0 for the 1998 edition, ISBN 0-00-448365-0 for the 1996 edition /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
Barbados: People. World Factbook of CIA https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/barbados/
'Modern School Atlas (96th edition)', ISBN 978-1-84907-013-3. /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Oxford economic atlas of the World 4th edition, ISBN 0-19-894107-2 /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Collins Atlas of the World, the 1993 edition, ISBN 0-00-448038-4 /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Collins Longman Student Atlas, the 1996 and in 1998 publications, ISBN 978-0-00-448879-0 for the 1998 edition, ISBN 0-00-448365-0 for the 1996 edition /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
"World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision: Selected Tables: Annex Tables" (PDF). United Nations. 2009. Table A.1. Total Population by Sex in 2009 and Sex Ratio by Country in 2009. Retrieved 12 March 2009. NB: The preliminary results of the National population census in Guinea-Bissau put the figure at 1,449,230, according to email information by the Instituto Nacional de Estudos e Pesquisa, Bissau. https://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2008/wpp2008_text_tables.pdf
'Modern School Atlas (96th edition)', ISBN 978-1-84907-013-3. /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Oxford economic atlas of the World 4th edition, ISBN 0-19-894107-2 /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Collins Atlas of the World, the 1993 edition, ISBN 0-00-448038-4 /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Collins Longman Student Atlas, the 1996 and in 1998 publications, ISBN 978-0-00-448879-0 for the 1998 edition, ISBN 0-00-448365-0 for the 1996 edition /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
'Modern School Atlas (96th edition)', ISBN 978-1-84907-013-3. /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Oxford economic atlas of the World 4th edition, ISBN 0-19-894107-2 /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Collins Atlas of the World, the 1993 edition, ISBN 0-00-448038-4 /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Collins Longman Student Atlas, the 1996 and in 1998 publications, ISBN 978-0-00-448879-0 for the 1998 edition, ISBN 0-00-448365-0 for the 1996 edition /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
'Modern School Atlas (96th edition)', ISBN 978-1-84907-013-3. /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Oxford economic atlas of the World 4th edition, ISBN 0-19-894107-2 /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Collins Atlas of the World, the 1993 edition, ISBN 0-00-448038-4 /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Collins Longman Student Atlas, the 1996 and in 1998 publications, ISBN 978-0-00-448879-0 for the 1998 edition, ISBN 0-00-448365-0 for the 1996 edition /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
Pordata, "Base de Dados Portugal Contemporâneo". Accessed on 7 March 2011. http://www.pordata.pt/
'Modern School Atlas (96th edition)', ISBN 978-1-84907-013-3. /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Oxford economic atlas of the World 4th edition, ISBN 0-19-894107-2 /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Collins Atlas of the World, the 1993 edition, ISBN 0-00-448038-4 /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Collins Longman Student Atlas, the 1996 and in 1998 publications, ISBN 978-0-00-448879-0 for the 1998 edition, ISBN 0-00-448365-0 for the 1996 edition /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
'Modern School Atlas (96th edition)', ISBN 978-1-84907-013-3. /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Oxford economic atlas of the World 4th edition, ISBN 0-19-894107-2 /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Collins Atlas of the World, the 1993 edition, ISBN 0-00-448038-4 /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Collins Longman Student Atlas, the 1996 and in 1998 publications, ISBN 978-0-00-448879-0 for the 1998 edition, ISBN 0-00-448365-0 for the 1996 edition /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
"World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision: Selected Tables: Annex Tables" (PDF). United Nations. 2009. Table A.1. Total Population by Sex in 2009 and Sex Ratio by Country in 2009. Retrieved 12 March 2009. NB: The preliminary results of the National population census in Guinea-Bissau put the figure at 1,449,230, according to email information by the Instituto Nacional de Estudos e Pesquisa, Bissau. https://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2008/wpp2008_text_tables.pdf
'Modern School Atlas (96th edition)', ISBN 978-1-84907-013-3. /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Oxford economic atlas of the World 4th edition, ISBN 0-19-894107-2 /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Collins Atlas of the World, the 1993 edition, ISBN 0-00-448038-4 /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Collins Longman Student Atlas, the 1996 and in 1998 publications, ISBN 978-0-00-448879-0 for the 1998 edition, ISBN 0-00-448365-0 for the 1996 edition /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
'Modern School Atlas (96th edition)', ISBN 978-1-84907-013-3. /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Oxford economic atlas of the World 4th edition, ISBN 0-19-894107-2 /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Collins Atlas of the World, the 1993 edition, ISBN 0-00-448038-4 /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Collins Longman Student Atlas, the 1996 and in 1998 publications, ISBN 978-0-00-448879-0 for the 1998 edition, ISBN 0-00-448365-0 for the 1996 edition /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
"World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision: Selected Tables: Annex Tables" (PDF). United Nations. 2009. Table A.1. Total Population by Sex in 2009 and Sex Ratio by Country in 2009. Retrieved 12 March 2009. NB: The preliminary results of the National population census in Guinea-Bissau put the figure at 1,449,230, according to email information by the Instituto Nacional de Estudos e Pesquisa, Bissau. https://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2008/wpp2008_text_tables.pdf
'Modern School Atlas (96th edition)', ISBN 978-1-84907-013-3. /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Oxford economic atlas of the World 4th edition, ISBN 0-19-894107-2 /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Collins Atlas of the World, the 1993 edition, ISBN 0-00-448038-4 /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Collins Longman Student Atlas, the 1996 and in 1998 publications, ISBN 978-0-00-448879-0 for the 1998 edition, ISBN 0-00-448365-0 for the 1996 edition /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
"World Population Prospects, Table A.1" (PDF). United Nations. 2010. Retrieved 12 March 2009.[dead link] https://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2010/wpp2010_text_tables.pdf
"Population Forecast to 2060 by International Futures hosted by Google Public Data Explorer". Retrieved 13 July 2011. http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=n4ff2muj8bh2a_&ctype=l&strail=false&nselm=h&met_y=POP&hl=en&dl=en#ctype=l&strail=false&nselm=h&met_y=POP&fdim_y=scenario:1&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=world&idim=country:AO&hl=en&dl=en
'Modern School Atlas (96th edition)', ISBN 978-1-84907-013-3. /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Oxford economic atlas of the World 4th edition, ISBN 0-19-894107-2 /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Collins Atlas of the World, the 1993 edition, ISBN 0-00-448038-4 /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Collins Longman Student Atlas, the 1996 and in 1998 publications, ISBN 978-0-00-448879-0 for the 1998 edition, ISBN 0-00-448365-0 for the 1996 edition /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
"World Population Prospects, Table A.1" (PDF). United Nations. 2010. Retrieved 12 March 2009.[dead link] https://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2010/wpp2010_text_tables.pdf
'Modern School Atlas (96th edition)', ISBN 978-1-84907-013-3. /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Oxford economic atlas of the World 4th edition, ISBN 0-19-894107-2 /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Collins Atlas of the World, the 1993 edition, ISBN 0-00-448038-4 /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Collins Longman Student Atlas, the 1996 and in 1998 publications, ISBN 978-0-00-448879-0 for the 1998 edition, ISBN 0-00-448365-0 for the 1996 edition /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
'Modern School Atlas (96th edition)', ISBN 978-1-84907-013-3. /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Oxford economic atlas of the World 4th edition, ISBN 0-19-894107-2 /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Collins Atlas of the World, the 1993 edition, ISBN 0-00-448038-4 /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Collins Longman Student Atlas, the 1996 and in 1998 publications, ISBN 978-0-00-448879-0 for the 1998 edition, ISBN 0-00-448365-0 for the 1996 edition /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
"Background notes - Laos". US Dept. of State. Retrieved 20 January 2011. https://2009-2017.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2770.htm
'Modern School Atlas (96th edition)', ISBN 978-1-84907-013-3. /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Oxford economic atlas of the World 4th edition, ISBN 0-19-894107-2 /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Collins Atlas of the World, the 1993 edition, ISBN 0-00-448038-4 /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Collins Longman Student Atlas, the 1996 and in 1998 publications, ISBN 978-0-00-448879-0 for the 1998 edition, ISBN 0-00-448365-0 for the 1996 edition /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
"World Population Prospects, Table A.1" (PDF). United Nations. 2010. Retrieved 12 March 2009.[dead link] https://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2010/wpp2010_text_tables.pdf
'Modern School Atlas (96th edition)', ISBN 978-1-84907-013-3. /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Oxford economic atlas of the World 4th edition, ISBN 0-19-894107-2 /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Collins Atlas of the World, the 1993 edition, ISBN 0-00-448038-4 /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Collins Longman Student Atlas, the 1996 and in 1998 publications, ISBN 978-0-00-448879-0 for the 1998 edition, ISBN 0-00-448365-0 for the 1996 edition /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
"Official Iranian Population clock". Amar.org.ir. Archived from the original on 22 July 2011. Retrieved 13 July 2011. https://web.archive.org/web/20110722015233/http://www.amar.org.ir/default.aspx?tabid=52
'Modern School Atlas (96th edition)', ISBN 978-1-84907-013-3. /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Oxford economic atlas of the World 4th edition, ISBN 0-19-894107-2 /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Collins Atlas of the World, the 1993 edition, ISBN 0-00-448038-4 /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Collins Longman Student Atlas, the 1996 and in 1998 publications, ISBN 978-0-00-448879-0 for the 1998 edition, ISBN 0-00-448365-0 for the 1996 edition /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
"Estimated population of Canada, 1605 to present". Statistics Canada. 6 July 2009. Retrieved 17 April 2011. http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/98-187-x/4151287-eng.htm#table3
'Modern School Atlas (96th edition)', ISBN 978-1-84907-013-3. /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Oxford economic atlas of the World 4th edition, ISBN 0-19-894107-2 /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Collins Atlas of the World, the 1993 edition, ISBN 0-00-448038-4 /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Collins Longman Student Atlas, the 1996 and in 1998 publications, ISBN 978-0-00-448879-0 for the 1998 edition, ISBN 0-00-448365-0 for the 1996 edition /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
"Resident Population Data – 2010". U.S. Census Bureau. 2010. Archived from the original on 28 October 2011. Retrieved 22 December 2010. https://web.archive.org/web/20111028061117/http://2010.census.gov/2010census/data/apportionment-dens-text.php
'Modern School Atlas (96th edition)', ISBN 978-1-84907-013-3. /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Oxford economic atlas of the World 4th edition, ISBN 0-19-894107-2 /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Collins Atlas of the World, the 1993 edition, ISBN 0-00-448038-4 /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
The British Collins Longman Student Atlas, the 1996 and in 1998 publications, ISBN 978-0-00-448879-0 for the 1998 edition, ISBN 0-00-448365-0 for the 1996 edition /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
'Modern School Atlas (96th edition)', ISBN 978-1-84907-013-3. /wiki/ISBN_(identifier)
CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion Archived 2 December 2015 at the Wayback Machine Population 1971–2014 IEA (PDF Page 74, marked page 72) http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/co2-emissions-from-fuel-combustion-highlights-2014.html
"Population Projections". United States Census Bureau. https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popproj.html
Kaneda, Toshiko (June 2014). "Understanding Population Projections: Assumptions Behind the Numbers" (PDF). Population Reference Bureau. https://assets.prb.org/pdf14/understanding-population-projections.pdf
Roser, Max (2013-05-09). "Future Population Growth". Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/future-population-growth
Roser, Max (2013-05-09). "Future Population Growth". Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/future-population-growth