The major anthropogenic (human origin) sources of greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), methane and three groups of fluorinated gases (sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and perfluorocarbons (PFCs, sulphur hexafluoride (SF6), and nitrogen trifluoride (NF3)). Though the greenhouse effect is heavily driven by water vapor, human emissions of water vapor are not a significant contributor to warming.
Starting about 1750, industrial activity powered by fossil fuels began to significantly increase the concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Emissions have grown rapidly since about 1950 with ongoing expansions in global population and economic activity following World War II. As of 2021, measured atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide were almost 50% higher than pre-industrial levels.
Global greenhouse gas emissions are about 50 Gt per year and for 2019 have been estimated at 57 Gt CO2 eq including 5 Gt due to land use change. In 2019, approximately 34% [20 GtCO2-eq] of total net anthropogenic GHG emissions came from the energy supply sector, 24% [14 GtCO2-eq] from industry, 22% [13 GtCO2-eq] from agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU), 15% [8.7 GtCO2-eq] from transport and 6% [3.3 GtCO2-eq] from buildings.
The current CO2-equivalent emission rates averaging 6.6 tonnes per person per year, are well over twice the estimated rate 2.3 tons required to stay within the 2030 Paris Agreement increase of 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) over pre-industrial levels.
While cities are sometimes considered to be disproportionate contributors to emissions, per-capita emissions tend to be lower for cities than the averages in their countries.
China is, by a significant margin, Asia's and the world's largest emitter: it emits nearly 10 billion tonnes each year, more than one-quarter of global emissions. Other countries with fast growing emissions are South Korea, Iran, and Australia (which apart from the oil rich Persian Gulf states, now has the highest per capita emission rate in the world). On the other hand, annual per capita emissions of the EU-15 and the US are gradually decreasing over time. Emissions in Russia and Ukraine have decreased fastest since 1990 due to economic restructuring in these countries.
2015 was the first year to see both total global economic growth and a reduction of carbon emissions.
Annual per capita emissions in the industrialized countries are typically as much as ten times the average in developing countries.: 144 Due to China's fast economic development, its annual per capita emissions are quickly approaching the levels of those in the Annex I group of the Kyoto Protocol (i.e., the developed countries excluding the US).
Africa and South America are both fairly small emitters, accounting for 3-4% of global emissions each. Both have emissions almost equal to international aviation and shipping.
There are several ways of measuring greenhouse gas emissions. Some variables that have been reported include:
These measures are sometimes used by countries to assert various policy/ethical positions on climate change.: 94 The use of different measures leads to a lack of comparability, which is problematic when monitoring progress towards targets. There are arguments for the adoption of a common measurement tool, or at least the development of communication between different tools.
Emissions may be tracked over long time periods, known as historical or cumulative emissions measurements. Cumulative emissions provide some indicators of what is responsible for greenhouse gas atmospheric concentration build-up.: 199
The national accounts balance tracks emissions based on the difference between a country's exports and imports. For many richer nations, the balance is negative because more goods are imported than they are exported. This result is mostly due to the fact that it is cheaper to produce goods outside of developed countries, leading developed countries to become increasingly dependent on services and not goods. A positive account balance would mean that more production was occurring within a country, so more operational factories would increase carbon emission levels.
Emissions may also be measured across shorter time periods. Emissions changes may, for example, be measured against the base year of 1990. 1990 was used in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as the base year for emissions, and is also used in the Kyoto Protocol (some gases are also measured from the year 1995).: 146, 149 A country's emissions may also be reported as a proportion of global emissions for a particular year.
Another measurement is of per capita emissions. This divides a country's total annual emissions by its mid-year population.: 370 Per capita emissions may be based on historical or annual emissions.: 106–107
A substantial proportion of CO2 emissions is traded internationally. The net effect of trade was to export emissions from China and other emerging markets to consumers in the US, Japan, and Western Europe.: 4
Emission intensity is a ratio between greenhouse gas emissions and another metric, e.g., gross domestic product (GDP) or energy use. The terms "carbon intensity" and "emissions intensity" are also sometimes used. Emission intensities may be calculated using market exchange rates (MER) or purchasing power parity (PPP).: 96
Cumulative anthropogenic (i.e., human-emitted) emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel use are a major cause of global warming, and give some indication of which countries have contributed most to human-induced climate change. In particular, CO2 stays in the atmosphere for at least 150 years and up to 1000 years, whilst methane disappears within a decade or so, and nitrous oxides last about 100 years. The graph gives some indication of which regions have contributed most to human-induced climate change.: 15 When these numbers are calculated per capita cumulative emissions based on then-current population the situation is shown even more clearly. The ratio in per capita emissions between industrialized countries and developing countries was estimated at more than 10 to 1.
Overall, developed countries accounted for 83.8% of industrial CO2 emissions over this time period, and 67.8% of total CO2 emissions. Developing countries accounted for industrial CO2 emissions of 16.2% over this time period, and 32.2% of total CO2 emissions.
However, what becomes clear when we look at emissions across the world today is that the countries with the highest emissions over history are not always the biggest emitters today. For example, in 2017, the UK accounted for just 1% of global emissions.
Buildings, like industry, are directly responsible for around one-fifth of greenhouse gas emissions, primarily from space heating and hot water consumption. When combined with power consumption within buildings, this figure climbs to more than one-third.
The graphic shows the logarithm of 1850–2019 fossil fuel CO2 emissions; natural log on left, actual value of Gigatons per year on right. Although emissions increased during the 170-year period by about 3% per year overall, intervals of distinctly different growth rates (broken at 1913, 1945, and 1973) can be detected. The regression lines suggest that emissions can rapidly shift from one growth regime to another and then persist for long periods of time. The most recent drop in emissions growth – by almost 3 percentage points – was at about the time of the 1970s energy crisis. Percent changes per year were estimated by piecewise linear regression on the log data and are shown on the plot; the data are from The Integrated Carbon Observation system.
The sharp acceleration in CO2 emissions since 2000 to more than a 3% increase per year (more than 2 ppm per year) from 1.1% per year during the 1990s is attributable to the lapse of formerly declining trends in carbon intensity of both developing and developed nations. China was responsible for most of global growth in emissions during this period. Localised plummeting emissions associated with the collapse of the Soviet Union have been followed by slow emissions growth in this region due to more efficient energy use, made necessary by the increasing proportion of it that is exported. In comparison, methane has not increased appreciably, and N2O by 0.25% y−1.
Using different base years for measuring emissions has an effect on estimates of national contributions to global warming.: 17–18 This can be calculated by dividing a country's highest contribution to global warming starting from a particular base year, by that country's minimum contribution to global warming starting from a particular base year. Choosing between base years of 1750, 1900, 1950, and 1990 has a significant effect for most countries.: 17–18
Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the dominant emitted greenhouse gas, while methane (CH4) emissions almost have the same short-term impact. Nitrous oxide (N2O) and fluorinated gases (F-gases) play a lesser role in comparison.
Greenhouse gas emissions in 2019 were estimated at 57.4 GtCO2e, while CO2 emissions alone made up 42.5 Gt including land-use change (LUC).
Methane has a high immediate impact with a 5-year global warming potential of up to 100. Given this, the current 389 Mt of methane emissions: 6 has about the same short-term global warming effect as CO2 emissions, with a risk to trigger irreversible changes in climate and ecosystems. For methane, a reduction of about 30% below current emission levels would lead to a stabilization in its atmospheric concentration.
N2O has a high GWP and significant Ozone Depleting Potential. It is estimated that the global warming potential of N2O over 100 years is 265 times greater than CO2. For N2O, a reduction of more than 50% would be required for a stabilization.
Most emissions (56%) of nitrous oxide comes from agriculture, especially meat production: cattle (droppings on pasture), fertilizers, animal manure.: 12 Further contributions come from combustion of fossil fuels (18%) and biofuels as well as industrial production of adipic acid and nitric acid.
Greenhouse gas emissions can be divided into those that arise from the combustion of fuels to produce energy, and those generated by other processes. Around two thirds of greenhouse gas emissions arise from the combustion of fuels.
The remaining third of emissions arise from processes other than energy production. 12% of total emissions arise from agriculture, 7% from land use change and forestry, 6% from industrial processes, and 3% from waste.
Deforestation is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions. A study shows annual carbon emissions (or carbon loss) from tropical deforestation have doubled during the last two decades and continue to increase. (0.97 ±0.16 PgC per year in 2001–2005 to 1.99 ±0.13 PgC per year in 2015–2019)
Land-use change, e.g., the clearing of forests for agricultural use, can affect the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere by altering how much carbon flows out of the atmosphere into carbon sinks. Accounting for land-use change can be understood as an attempt to measure "net" emissions, i.e., gross emissions from all sources minus the removal of emissions from the atmosphere by carbon sinks.: 92–93
There are substantial uncertainties in the measurement of net carbon emissions. Additionally, there is controversy over how carbon sinks should be allocated between different regions and over time.: 93 For instance, concentrating on more recent changes in carbon sinks is likely to favour those regions that have deforested earlier, e.g., Europe.
Transportation accounts for 15% of emissions worldwide. Over a quarter of global transport CO2 emissions are from road freight, so many countries are further restricting truck CO2 emissions to help limit climate change.
In 2020, approximately 3.5% of the overall human impacts on climate are from the aviation sector. The impact of the sector on climate in the last 20 years had doubled, but the part of the contribution of the sector in comparison to other sectors did not change because other sectors grew as well.
Some representative figures for CO2 average direct emissions (not accounting for high-altitude radiative effects) of airliners expressed as CO2 and CO2 equivalent per passenger kilometer:
In 2018, manufacturing construction materials and maintaining buildings accounted for 39% of carbon dioxide emissions from energy and process-related emissions. Manufacture of glass, cement, and steel accounted for 11% of energy and process-related emissions. Because building construction is a significant investment, more than two-thirds of buildings in existence will still exist in 2050. Retrofitting existing buildings to become more efficient will be necessary to meet the targets of the Paris Agreement; it will be insufficient to only apply low-emission standards to new construction. Buildings that produce as much energy as they consume are called zero-energy buildings, while buildings that produce more than they consume are energy-plus. Low-energy buildings are designed to be highly efficient with low total energy consumption and carbon emissions—a popular type is the passive house.
The construction industry has seen marked advances in building performance and energy efficiency over recent decades. Green building practices that avoid emissions or capture the carbon already present in the environment, allow for reduced footprint of the construction industry, for example, use of hempcrete, cellulose fiber insulation, and landscaping.
In 2019, the building sector was responsible for 12 GtCO2-eq emissions. More than 95% of these emissions were carbon, and the remaining 5% were CH4, N2O, and halocarbon.
The largest contributor to building sector emissions (49% of total) is the production of electricity for use in buildings.
Of global building sector GHG emissions, 28% are produced during the manufacturing process of building materials such as steel, cement (a key component of concrete), and glass. The conventional process inherently related to the production of steel and cement results in large amounts of CO2 emitted. For example, the production of steel in 2018 was responsible for 7 to 9% of the global CO2 emissions.
The remaining 23% of global building sector GHG emissions are produced directly on site during building operations.
GHG emissions which are produced during the mining, processing, manufacturing, transportation and installation of building materials are referred to as the embodied carbon of a material. The embodied carbon of a construction project can be reduced by using low-carbon materials for building structures and finishes, reducing demolition, and reusing buildings and construction materials whenever possible.
Steel and aluminum are key economic sectors where CO2 is produced. According to a 2013 study, "in 2004, the steel industry along emits about 590M tons of CO2, which accounts for 5.2% of the global anthropogenic GHG emissions. CO2 emitted from steel production primarily comes from energy consumption of fossil fuel as well as the use of limestone to purify iron oxides."
Plastics are produced mainly from fossil fuels. It was estimated that between 3% and 4% of global GHG emissions are associated with plastics' life cycles. The EPA estimates as many as five mass units of carbon dioxide are emitted for each mass unit of polyethylene terephthalate (PET) produced—the type of plastic most commonly used for beverage bottles, the transportation produce greenhouse gases also. Plastic waste emits carbon dioxide when it degrades. In 2018 research claimed that some of the most common plastics in the environment release the greenhouse gases methane and ethylene when exposed to sunlight in an amount that can affect the earth climate.
Due to the lightness of plastic versus glass or metal, plastic may reduce energy consumption. For example, packaging beverages in PET plastic rather than glass or metal is estimated to save 52% in transportation energy, if the glass or metal package is single-use, of course.
In 2019 a new report "Plastic and Climate" was published. According to the report, the production and incineration of plastics will contribute in the equivalent of 850 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere in 2019. With the current trend, annual life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of plastics will grow to 1.34 billion tonnes by 2030. By 2050, the life cycle emissions of plastics could reach 56 billion tonnes, as much as 14 percent of the Earth's remaining carbon budget. The report says that only solutions which involve a reduction in consumption can solve the problem, while others like biodegradable plastic, ocean cleanup, using renewable energy in plastic industry can do little, and in some cases may even worsen it.
The global print and paper industry accounts for about 1% of global carbon dioxide emissions. Greenhouse gas emissions from the pulp and paper industry are generated from the combustion of fossil fuels required for raw material production and transportation, wastewater treatment facilities, purchased power, paper transportation, printed product transportation, disposal and recycling.
A study in 2015 investigated the global electricity usage that can be ascribed to Communication Technology (CT) between 2010 and 2030. Electricity usage from CT was divided into four principle categories: (i) consumer devices, including personal computers, mobile phones, TVs and home entertainment systems; (ii) network infrastructure; (iii) data center computation and storage; and lastly (iv) production of the above categories. The study estimated for the worst-case scenario, that CT electricity usage could contribute up to 23% of the globally released greenhouse gas emissions in 2030.
The healthcare sector produces 4.4–4.6% of global greenhouse gas emissions.
Based on the 2013 life cycle emissions in the health care sector, it is estimated that the GHG emissions associated with US health care activities may cause an additional 123,000 to 381,000 DALYs annually.
The global carbon footprint of the military sector is around 5.5% of global emissions, which are not included in GHG assessments on global and country level. This estimate do not include the emissions from the conflicts themself, as well as the impact of exhaust gases from aviation in the stratosphere (a factor of 1.9 is applied to emissions from aviation because of this effect) and a possibility of non-exact reporting.
The responsibility for anthropogenic climate change differs substantially among individuals, e.g. between groups or cohorts.
Studies find that the most affluent citizens of the world are responsible for most environmental impacts, and robust action by them is necessary for prospects of moving towards safer environmental conditions.
Based on a study in 32 developed countries, researchers found that "seniors in the United States and Australia have the highest per capita footprint, twice the Western average. The trend is mainly due to changes in expenditure patterns of seniors".
In 2023, China, the United States, India, EU, Russia, Japan, and Iran - the world's largest CO2 emitters - together accounted for 69.7% of total global fossil CO2 emissions.
In 2020, carbon dioxide emissions fell by 6.4% or 2.3 billion tonnes globally. In April 2020, NOx emissions fell by up to 30%. In China, lockdowns and other measures resulted in a 26% decrease in coal consumption, and a 50% reduction in nitrogen oxide emissions. Greenhouse gas emissions rebounded later in the pandemic as many countries began lifting restrictions, with the direct impact of pandemic policies having a negligible long-term impact on climate change.
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